DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 241 660
UD 023 428
TITLE
Estimates of the Population of Puerto Rico and the
Outlying Areas: 1970 to 1982. Current Population
Reports. Population Estimates and Projections. Series
P-25, No. 943.
INSTITUTION
Bureau of the Census (iOC), Suitland, Md.
PUB DATE
Jan 84
NOTE
10p.; The two maps will not reproduce.
PUB TYPE
Statistical Data (110) -- Reports - General (140)
EDRS PRICE
MF01/PC01 Plus Postage.
DESCRIPTORS
Birth Rate; Census Figures; *Demography; Migration;
*Population Trends; *Research Methodology
IDENTIFIERS
American Samoa; Guam; Mortality Rates; Pacific Trust
Territory; Puerto Rico; Virgin Islands
ABSTRACT
This report presents estimates of the population for
July 1, 1970, to 1982 for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands of the
United States, American Samoa, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands,
and the remainder of the Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands.
Census counts for 1970 and 1980 are also shown for each of the areas.
In addition, the report presents the components of population change
for these areas for the 1970-80 and 1980-82 periods--natural change
(births minus deaths) and net migration (the number of persons
migrating to a particular area minus the number migrating from the
area). Information is provided on the different methodologies used to
derive data for each area, limitations of the estimates, and data
sources. (Author/CMG)
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Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made
from the original document.
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CURRENT POPULATION REPORTS
Population Estimates
and Projections
Series ID-25, No. 943
Issued January 1984
Estimates of the Population of Puerto Rico and the
Outlying Areas: 1970 to 1982
(Estimates in this report supersede those for 1980 and 1981 published in Current Population
Reports, Series P-25, No. 919. Estimates for Puerto Rico and the outlying areas for the 1960's
and 1950's appear in Current Population Reports, Series P-25, Nos. 603 and 336.)
This report presents estimates of the population for
July 1, 1970. to 1982 for Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands of the United States, American Samoa, Guam,
the Northern Mariana Islands, and the remainder of the
Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands.' Census counts
for 1970 and 1980 are also shown for each of the
areas. These areas had an estimated population of 3.6
million in 1982. Small areas under American jurisdic-
tion in the Pacific Ocean. such as Midway, Wake, and
Canton Islands, and Johnston Atoll, are excluded; there
were 1,082 persons on these islands in 1980.
The report also presents the components of popula-
tion change for these areas for the 1970-80 and
1980-82 periodsnatural change (births minus deaths)
and net migration (the number of persons migrating in-
to a particular area minus the number migrating from
the area). In some of the areas shown, net migration
is not estimated directly but is derived as the difference
between the total amount of change and natural
change.
METHOD DLOGY
Because the availability of data relating to population
change varies from territory to territory and the con-
centration of special population groups in some of the
areas makes it difficult to rely on standard methods,
different procedures are used for each area. The pro-
cedures used to compute intercensal estimates for
1970-80 are described in Current Population Reports,
Series P-25, No. 919.
'As of October 1. 1979, the Canal Zone ceased to be under the
"jurisdiction. control, or sovereignty" of the United States. Therefore,
population estimates are no longer shown for this area. For estimates
through 1976. see Current Population Reports. Series P-25. No. 731.
Puerto Rico. The estimates for Puerto Rico were
based on the 1980 census and on reported statistics
for each of the components of population change.
Before 1980, births had been corrected for under-
registration. However. the correction has been drop-
ped since the births are now nearly fully reported. The
migration component was derived from monthly
passenger statistics on arrivals to and departures from
Puerto Rico compiled by the Commonwealth Govern-
ment. The migration estimate for Puerto Rico is the sum
of centered 12-month moving averages of the reported
monthly data. This compensates for bias introduced by
short-term fluctuations in passenger data which reflect
the seasonal movement of transients (tourists and other
visitors) rather than the movement of migrants to a new
residence. The movement of transients tends to cancel
out ov,r longer periods.
Virgin Islands. The estimates for the Virgin Islands were
based on the 1980 census and on reported births and
deaths. Component Method II was used to estimate net
migration. In this method, net migration is estimated
on the basis of school enrollment data using the dif-
ference between the estimated population of elemen-
tary school age and the population of school age ex-
pected*on the basis of the most recent census and
births since the census. A more detailed discussion of
the method can be found in Current Population Reports,
Series P-25, No. 640.
American Samoa. The estimates for American Samoa
were based on the 1980 census and on births and
deaths reported by the Government of American
Samoa. Since there is no reporting system for migra-
tion, net migration must be estimated indirectly. For
April 1, 1980, through July 1, 1982, the average an-
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington. D.C. 20402.
2
2
CARIBBEAN AREA
44-
19
nual amount of net migration was estimated based on
the level of residual net migration for the 1977-80
period. The 1977-80 period was chosen because the
Government of American Samoa conducted a survey
in 1977 which could be used in conjunction with the
1980 census and with reported births and deaths to
estimate net migration. The procedure used to estimate
net migration actually yields an estimate of net migra-
tion plus any errors in the data.
Guam. The estimates of the population of Guam were
developed by adding the components of change to the
relevant population base. The July 1, 1980, 1981. and
1982 estimates were derived using a base composed
of the 1980 census count less the estimated popula-
tion on April 1, 1980. who were born in the United
States.' The population base is restricted because of
the large and relatively transient Federally affiliated
population for which migration is substantial and dif-
ficult to 'estimate. Rather than estimate migration for
this population group, administrative records were
used to determine the number of Federally affiliated per-
sons on each estimate date. The following were
added to the relevant population base:
1. Natural increase. The excess of births over
deaths is based on reported birth and death
statistics. Excluded are the births and deaths occur-
ring in the U.S. Naval Hospital, which are accounted
for in step 4.
2. Change in alien contract workers. This cate-
gory is composed primarily of contract workers
brought in from the Philippines by the Department
of Defense. The estimates are based on information
provided by the Guam Department of Commerce.
3. Net alien immigration. These are persons
accepted for permanent residence in the United
States. The estimate is based on Immigration and
Naturalization Service figures on immigrants who
reported on their visa application that they intended
to live on Guam. It is assumed that 40 percent of
the immigrants each year either leave Guam or in-
accurately reported their intention of living on Guam.
4. Federally affiliated population.The number of
persons in the Armed Forces stationed on Guam was
obtained from the U.S. Department of Defense. The
Guam Department of Commerce provided data on
the numbers of Federal civilian employees and
dependents of both Federal civilian employees and
the military.
2The April 1. 1980, American population on Guam was estimated
based on data furnished by the Guam Department of Commerce and
the U.S. Department of Defense.
3
5. Guamanian inductions less discharges.The
number of persons in the Armed Forces in the United
States who lived on Guam before joining the military
is available from the Department of Defense. One
half the change in preservice residence on Guam was
used to approximate inductions less discharges on
Guam.
No data are available on the movement of the
nonfederally affiliated population who are not covered
above, but this component of net migration is probably
not large.
Previous tests of the estimation procedure for Guam
have shown a very high bias in the procedure.
Preliminary analyses suggest this bias may result from
inflated estimates of immigration to Guam and from the
double-counting of certain groups of federally affiliated
persons. To correct for these errors, estimated emigra-
tion has been increased from :110 to 40 percent of im-
migrants, and an estimate of Guamanian inductions into
the Armed Forces less discharges has been incor-
porated into the procedure.
Northern Mariana Islands. Net migration for April 1,
1980, to July 1, 1982, was estimated based on revis-
ed migration estimates for the period 1973 to 1980.
The estimates for July 1, 1980, 1981, and 1982 were
then derived by adding the components of population
change to the 1980 census count. Since net migration
is computed as a residual and vital statistics are likely
to be underreported, the residual probably includes
underreported births and deaths to a much greater ex-
tent than in American Samoa. For this reason, net
migration is not shown forthe Northern Marianas or the
Trust Territory in table 1.
Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands. excluding Northern
Mariana Islands. The methodology used in deriving
these estimates was basically the same as that used
for the Northern Mariana Islands. The only difference
was that the net migration was based on net migration
computed using the September 12, 1977, Skill and Oc-
cupation Survey conducted by the Office of Planning
and Statistics of the Government of the Trust Territory
of the Pacific islands and on the 1980 census. It should
also be noted that ine. census for the Trust Territory,
excluding the Northern Mariana Islands was taken on
September 15, 1980. As mentioned above, net migra-
tion is not shown in table 1 due to the suspected
substantial underreporting of vital statistics.
5
4
PACIFIC AREA
LIMITATIONS OF THE ESTIMATES
The areas for which estimates are presented in this
report are unique in terms of size, location, and com-
position. This creates difficulty in developing ap-
propriate estimating procedures, much less standard
procedures that are applicable for all the areas. The poor
quality and absence of adequate data make it difficult
to prepare accurate estimates. The estimation tech-
niques used in this report were selected either on the
basis of a test o methods against the 1970 census or
1980 census' or on the basis of the use of additional
data sources not previously available. A comparison of
the 1980 census results and the estimates for 1980
is shown in table A.
For Puerto Rico, the estimating technique now used
remains essentially unchanged from that used for the
1960's and 1970's. The accuracy of the estimate
depends very heavily upon canceling out in the migra-
tion statistics the large numberpf visitors who move
between Puerto Rico and the mainland of the United
States. Since gross arrival and departure data obviously
contain a large number of tourists, net monthly figures
are computed and smoothed using a 12-month
moving average. This process provides rough approx-
imations of net migration for Puerto Rico.
In the case of the Virgin Islands, where Component
Method
11
is
employed, the
difference
be-
tween the April 1, 1980, estimate and the census count
was trivial, only 23 persons. In 1970, the difference
using that method in tests was less than 1 percent.
The estimating procedure used for American Samoa
is a means of bridging a period when no possible in-
dependent migration estimates can be developed. The
1970 and 1980 censuses, along with a 1974 special
census and the 1977 survey, provide reference points
which. in combination with reported vital statistics, can
be used to yield acceptable estimates of net migration
sFor more information on the 1970 test, see Current Population
Reports. Series P25, No. 731. The 1980 test results are reported
in Current Population Reports. Series P-25, No. 919.
5
for the intervening periods. The actual migration for
each year in the period is unknown. In the absence of
any other information concerning the annual migration
pattern, it has been assumed that there was a smooth
annual net outmigration during each of these periods.
For Guam, as indicated earlier, the estimates are
based on a special estimating method which yields
point estimates of the various subcategorieS of the
population. The test of this method for the 1960-70
period showed an overestimate of about 10 percent.
In 1980, the magnitude of the error of closure suggests
that this level and direction of error still existed in the
estimates. Likely explanations for this include the lack
of accurate migration data as well as conflicting infor-
mation on persons who were born in the 50 States and
on the special populations employed in the current
methodology.
The estimates for the Northern Mariana Islands con-
tain a similar level of error and are biased in the same
direction. The 1980 error was 1,794 persons, or
10.7 percent. As was the case for Guam, the lack
of any migration data combined with the lack of cen-
suses or surveys during the intercensal period poses
a serious problem in estimating the Northern Marianas
population.
The Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands population
estimates have essentially the same limitations as those
for the Northern Mariana islands. Fortunately, the ex-
istence of the 1977 Skill and Occupation Survey pro-
vided an additional, and apparently accurate, reference
point. The error in estimating 1980 was only 61 per-
sons or 0.1 percent.
Efforts will continue to be made to correct the estima-
tion errors to the degree that available methodologies
and data will permit.
SOURCES OF DATA
Most of the statistics used to prepare the area
estimates presented in this report were obtained from
the local governments of the outlying areas. Data on
births and deaths were obtained from the local govern-
Table A. Comparison of 1980 Census and 1980 Population Estimates for Puerto Rico and the Outlying Anb..as
tree
-.
1980
provisional
population
Percent
1980 Census
estimate
Errorl
error:
Puerto Rico
3,196,520
3,195,130
1,390
argin Islands.
96,569
96,546
23
-
tnerican Samoa
32,297
32,260
37
0.7
Alain
trust Territory o: the Pacific Islands,
excluding Northern Mariana Islands
105,979
116,149
116,251
116,210
-10,272
-61
-9.7
-0.1
qorthern Mariana Islands
15,780
18,574
-1,794
-10.7
- Represents zero.
'The error of closure is the difference between the 1980 census count and the 1980 provisional population
estimate.
=Dose for percent is 1980 census count.
8
6
ments for Puerto Rico and the outlying areas. Armed
Forces data aro based on figures provided by the
Department of Defense. School enrollment data for the
Virgin Islands were supplied by the Virgin Islands
Department of Education. For Puerto Rico, data on
migration were supplied by the Puerto Rico Planning
Board. The number of Federal civilian employees on
Guam was obtained from the Guam Department of
Commerce.
ROUNDING OF ESTIMATES
Each estimate in this report has been rounded in-
dependently to the nearest thousand (Puerto Rico) or
hundred (other areas) from figures computed to the last
digit. Hence, the sum of the parts may differ from the
total shown. Percentages are based on unrounded
numbers.
Table 1. Estimates of the Components of Change in the Resident Population of Puerto Rico and the Outlying Areas of the
United States: 1970 to 1982
(Resident population includes persons in the Armed Forces stationed in each area.
Each estimate has been rounded
to the nearest thousand for Puerto Rico and to the nearest hundred for the outlying areas)
Period and area
Population
at end of
period
Chance
Components of change
Number
Percent
Births
Deaths
Net
migration)
APRIL 1, 1980 -JULY 1, 1982
Caribbean Areas
Puerto Rico
3,241,000
65,000
2.0
160,000
47,000
-47,000
Virgin Islands
101,500
5,000
5.2
5,500
1,200
600
Pacific Areas
American Samoa
33,800
1,500
4.6
2,600
300
-800
Guam
110,800
4,800
4.6
26,600
2900
3-800
Trust Territory of the Pacific
Islands'
120,400
4.300
3.7
6,600
900
(6)
Northern Mariana Islands
17,700
1,000
5.7
1,400
200
(6)
APRIL 1, 1970-APRIL 1, 1980
Caribbean Areas
Puerto Rico
3,196,520
484,000
17.9
6744,000
194,000
7-66,000
Virgin Islands-
96,569
34,100
54.6
26,600
5,000
12,500
Pacific Areas
American Samoa
32,297
5,100
18.9
10,600
1,400
-4,100
Guam.
105,979
21,000
24.7
230,700
24,100
3-5,700
Trust Territory of the Pacific
Islands'
116,149
27,600
31.2
36,000
5,300
(s)
Northern Mari..na Islands
16,780
4,600
37.5
5,300
900
(6)
2For 1970-80, ine:udes error of closure (the amount necessary
change between censuses).
Total births and deaths.
Previous reports excluded births and deaths in military
'Includes movement of members of the Armed Forces and their dependents.
Previous
of movement.
'Census taken September 15, 1980.
Periods covered are April 1, 1970- September 15,
July 1, 1982.
SBecause part of the residual migration in these areas reflects underregistration
migration figures are not shown.
6Dirths corrected for underregistration.
7Includes net movement of persons on military air transport.
to make the componen as of change add to the net
hospitals.
reports excluded this type
1980 and September 15, 1980-
of vital statistics,
Correction was dropped beginning in 1980.
9
7
Table 2. Estimates of the Resident and Civilian Populations of Puerto Rico and theOutlying Areas: 1970 to 1982
(Each estimate has been rounded to the nearest thousand for Puerto Rico and to the nearest hundred for the out-
lying areas,
Data
(July 1, except us notod)
Puerto
Rieo
Virgin
Islands.
Amrican
Samoa
Guam
Trust Territory
of the Pacific
Islands
Northern
Mariana
Islands
RESIDENT POPULATION
1982
3,261,000
101,500
33,800
110,800
120,400
17,700
1981
3,245,000
98,300
3-3,100
110,000
118,100
17,300
1980 (Sept. 15)
-
-
-
-
116,149
-
1980
3,206,000
97,700
32,400
106,900
115,600
16,900
1980 (April 1)
3,196,520
96,569
32,297
105,979
-
16,780
1979
..
3,165,000
96,200
32,000
103,900
113,300
16,500
1978
3,115.000
95,900
31,400
102,000
111,200
16,100
1977
3.078.000
93.200
30,800
101,200
109,200
15,700
197b
3,024,000
96,200
30.300
102,500
107,000
15,300
1975
2,933,000
94,500
29,600
102,100
104,800
14,900
1974.....
2,885,000
89,900
29,100
101,300
102,500!
14,600
1973...
2,862,000
84,100
28,600
105,600
100,000
14,200
1972
2,846,000
7b,300
28,200
96,800
96,300
13,600
1971...,
2,766,000
70,900
27,700
92,300
92.800
13,000
1970
2,716,000
b3,500
27.300
86,500
.039,400
12.400
1970 (April 1)
2,712,033
62,468
27,159
84,996
188,500
112,200
CIVILIAN POPULATION
1982
3,258,000
101,500
13,800
102,800
120,400
17,700
1981
3.242,000
98,300
33,100
101,500
118,000
17,300
1980 (Supt. 15)
-
-
-
116.100
-
1980....
3,202,000
97,700
32,400
97,500
115,500
16,900
1980 (April 1)
3,192,000
96,600
32,300
9b,700
-
16,800
1979
3,162,000
96,200
1/ 000
-,
94.600
113.100
16,500
1978
3,111,000
95,900
31,400
92,300
111,000
16,100
1977
3,074,000
93,200
30,800
91,400
109,100
15,700
1976
3,020,000
96,200
30,300
91,800
106,900
15,300
1975
2.933.000
94,500
29,600
91,200
104,800
14,900
1974
2,885,000
89,900
29.100
59,500
102,500
14,600
1973
2,862,000
84,100
28,600
87,400
100,000
14,200
1972
2,846,000
76,300
28,200
84,500
96,300
13,600
1971
2.766,000
70,900
27,700
81,000
92,800
13,000
1970
2,716,000
63,500
27,300
75,200
89,400
12,400
1970 (April 1)
2.701,000
62.500
27,100
71,300
188,300
112,200
__.
lEstimates consistent with the Apportionment Census of September 1973.
The Federal census of 1970, which
showed a population count of 9,640 for the Northern Mariana islands and 81,300 for the Trust Territory of the
Pacific Islands, excluding tho Northern Mariana Islands (plus 3,960 on Kwajalein Island), appears to have been
incomplete.
U.S. 00,1X01000 PRIMING MICE g 1904 0.420.940/194