, r- l, I i .J ~=_l HURRICANE IN PARADISE: PERCEPTION AND REALITY OF THE HuRRICANE HAZARD IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS By MARTYN J. BOWDEN with the as sistance of Diana Fainberg Bernard Greenspan John Shapiro Stephen Barnhart Richard Martin Melvin Norris Geoffrey Weiner Richard Kollmar Cartography: Clark Upiversity Cartographic Laboratory Report based on data collected and processed during Clark University January Study P~riods, 1969, 1970, 1972 Published by Island Resources Foundation, St. Thomas, V. 1. 1974 · - 8 - 7 - 38 Copyright Island Resources Foundation & Martyn J. Bowden I .• ·• , THE VlltGIN ISLANDS OF THE UNITED STATES OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR' OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE P. O. Box 839 CHARLOTTE AMALIE, ST. THOMAS 00801 THIS VOLUME HAS BEEN PRINTED THROUGH THE COURTESY OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE AND EMERGENCY SERVICES July 1, 1974 Leon A. Mawson State Director --, I R o LIST OF PLATES Frontispiece - The Floods" in the West Indies - Inundation of the -, Island of Tortola - The Von Scholten Collection, St~ Thomas Public Library, St'. Thomas, V.1. P. 7 P. 8 P. 37 P. 38 Following P. 45 I II -l ! Following P. 73 III IV The Town of St. Thomas, NearJy Destroyed by a Hurricane, August 21, 1871 - Harper's Weekly, New York, Sept. 1871. The Town of Charlotte Amalie, August 28, 1924 (Photographer Unknown) - The Von Scholten Collection, St. Thomas Public Library, St. Thomas, V. I. St. Thomas after the Hurricane of 1819 - Aquatint by T. L. Busly 1820. The Von Scholten Collection St. Thomas Public Library, St. Thomas, V. I. The Town of Charlotte Amalie, August 28, 1924 (Photographer Unknown) - The Von Scholten Collection, St. Thomas Public Library, St. Thomas, V.1. "The Danish West Indies in Old Pictures? published 1967 - The Von Scholten Collection, St. Thomas Public Library, St. Thomas, V. I. St. Thomas, August 21, 1871 (unidentified Danish Newspaper) - The Von Scholten Collection, St. Thomas Public Library, St. Thomas, V.1. The Town of Charlotte Amalie after Hurricane (Photographer Unknown) - The Von Scholten !."\ Collection, St. Thomas. Public Library, \.b St. Thomas, V. 1. The Town of Charlotte Amalie, August 28, 1924 Photograph by M. Hassell·- The Von Scholten Collection, St. Thomas Public Library, St. Thomas, V. I. l I l I --, I I --, I Table of Contents Foreword Table of Contents Scenario: "Virgin Islands f~Catastrophe If Introduction . . . . Part I Tropical Cyclones: Character and Frequencies in St. Thomas Definitions; Pattern of Hurricanes 1867-1967 by"'John Shapiro and Richard Kollmar Probabilities of Tropical Cyclones in St. Thomas by Diana Fainberg Tropical Cyclone Characteristics and Classifications by John Shapiro and Richard Kollmar The Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones of Various Types by Melvin Norris . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ' .... Part II The Distinctive Force of Tropical Cyclones on St. Thomas Wind Damage by Bernard Greenspan Tidal Surge for St. Thomas by Stephen Barnhart Flooding and Hurricanes; Soil moisture Storage Levels and Hurricane Flooding by Richard Martin and Geoffrey Weiner Extension of the Base for Estimating Hurricane-Related Flood Damage By Richard Martin, Geoffrey WeJiner, and Martyn J. Bowden Part III Conceptions of Hurricanes and of the Hurricane Hazard Hurricanes of Scientist and Islander; Sharers of Island Hurricane Lore Experience of the Damaging Hurricane Reasons for Changing Hurricane Frequencies: Changing Tracks (58), Changing Atmosphere (60), The Imminent Hurricane (61), Hurricane Cycles (63), Religion (64), Superstition (66), Luck and the Lore of Averages (66) Four Stories and the Pattern of Hurricane Occurrence The Beneficent Hurricane - - Part IV Adjustments to the Hurricane Hazard ii iv vi ix 1 9 12 15 19 24 29 34 46 50 69 71 Awareness of the Hurricane Season: Official and Unofficial 74 Signs of the Imminent Hurricane, 77 Perceived and Actual Adjustments to the Hurricane Hazard 81 The Adjustments Made in the Virgin Islands (1970) I';(:) 85 Religion, Prayer, and Hurricane Hazard Adjustment ~ 88 I I ~l Conclusion: Increasing Preparedness Appendix 1 Appendix 2 Appendix 3 Appendix 4 Bibliography The Hurricane Section of the Questionnaire (1969) Definitions Characteristics of the Sampled Population (1970) I. G. U. Commission on Man and Environment: Text of Hazard Group Questionnaire ~. 96 102 102 104 105 110 Foreword Many people from Clark University helped in bringing this monograph to completion. Six students worked with me in presenting the first questionnaires concerned with hurricanes in four Virgin Islands in January 1969. The results of this preliminary survey were pulled to- gether in a mimeographed report "Luck, Prayer, and Cycle", written by the senior author, and incorporated in Parts 3 and 4 of this mono- graph. This early report benefitted from the hard, constructive criti- cism of R. W. Kates and his 'hazard seminar' in the spring of 1969, and it was Bob Kates who encouraged us to test the 1. G. U. Hazard question- naire in St. Thomas in January 197 O. Gilbert White of the Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of Colorado provided funds to defray our transportation costs and subsequently arranged for the processing of the data analyzed in Parts 3 and 4. The nine students who accompanied me in testing the I. G. U. question- naire experienced much frustration and encountered much hostility in many areas of St. Thomas. They pursued their tasks in most cases with commendable resolve, particularly Henry Aay, W. Banning, John Sorenson, Bob Simpson and Marc Eichen. In 1972 our task was to pull together and analyse data on the hurricane as reality. Much spadework was done by the group in the faU of 1971, many hours of reading and copying newspaper reports were expended at the New York Public Library and the Public Library, Charlotte Amalie. We also spent much time in the office of Robert Calvesbert, Common- walth Climatologist, Puerto Rico. The group then worked closely on the materials that constitute Parts 1 and 2 of the report. Only in the last week were the tasks of writing the separate sections apportioned to the individuals named as authors in the Table ,of Contents. Successive' drafts of the' sections' were discussed in seminar by the group as a whole and then subjected to the editorial pen of the senior author. The whole was a fine and commendable group effort by some excellent people: Diana Fainberg, Stephen Barnhart, Melvin Norris, Bernard Greenspan, Richard Martin, Geoffrey Weiner, John Shapiro and Richard Kollmar. i ! I The staff at the Peace Corps Training Center, St. Thomas in 1969, 1970, and 1972 always mad_~ us welcome and by providing accommoda- tion at reasonable cost made our research possible; Mr. Stephen Johnson of Mary's Fancy in 1969 and 1970 helped us greatly with trans- port expenses; Dr. Edward Towle of the Island Resources Foundation and the late director of the Caribbean Research Institute and Robert vanEepoel of Insular Environments, Inc. were truly' our men in St. Thomas' providing us at times with financial,. and at all times with moral. support in our endeavors. Miss Enid Baa always seemed to realize the potential value of our studies and has gone out of her way to make our work on the microfilm readers as pleasant and productive as such tedious work can be. And Robert Calvesbert answered many of our questions while spending time with us on St. Thomas in 1972. made available his hurricane library, and established many contacts for us in Puerto Rico. Without our Caribbean friends this monograph would not have been possible. In a very real sense our presence in the Caribbean was due in all three years to those in Charge of the January Study Project at Clark University who found our projects worthy and provided us with basic funds for equipment and supplied. on-island and inter-island trans- portation, etc. For my own support in the islands in 1969, 1970, and 1972 I am also greatly indebted to Dr. Saul Cohen and the Graduate School of Geography, Clark University; and to Margaret, Marc. and Jonathan I owe a peace of mind that has come with them whenever we've been together in the islands. What follows - the research design and interpretation in Parts 1 and 2, and the writing in Parts 3 and 4 - is my responsibility. Twelfth Night, 1973 Lindbergh Bay, St. Thomas Martyn J. Bowden ii -- I (News clipping) (V.!. Times) "VIRGIN ISLANDS' CATASTROPHE lJ Charlotte Amalie, Oct. 10. Linda, the most damaging hurricane in the island's history struck St. Thomas and apparently St. John in the early hours'ofyesterday morning. Chaos reigns, and only the wildest rumors are circulating. Telephone and electricity wires are down, and main roads are blocked or washed out in the center of St. Thomas at least. The island is no longer one but rather many isolated communi- ties, and it may well remain so for a week. Thirty are already known to be dead, and a conservative estimate places loss of property at $50 million. Clearly this hurricane of 1880 will go down as the Islands' worst. The infamous Linda pas sed south of St. Maarten on October 7th and 8th, and was reported with winds of 100 mph before hitting St. Thomas. It must have intensified substantially and extended its diameter by 15 miles, for from the evidence of damage to warehouses, docks and hangers winds must have gusted to 144 miles in the passage over the island. The calm eye has been reported from Frenchman's Bay, Charlotte Amalie, and Brewer's Bay - it must therefore have been at least 4 miles wide. The hurricane appears to have moved at a very slow 8mph. The barometer dropped to 27. 96 at Frenchman's Bay and Charlotte Amalie and 27. 99 at Truman Field. Looking at a report published 7 years ago in 1973 we see that only 3 hurricanes in the last 120 years had pressures lower than Linda's eye, and only 2 had stronger winds. It is hard as yet to say how high the tidal surge was, but the record of mud, rock, wood, boats, sand, and trees at Lindbergh, Crown and Long Bays in particular suggests that it was about 10 feet - again slightly less severe than those of the hurri- canes of 1867 and 1916. Linda brought a near-record 12 inches of rain (in 36 hours) to Fort Mylner; 10.3 inches to Charlotte Amalie, and 8.1 inches (in 24 hours) to Truman Field. From our vantage point alone, the worst prophesies of the Office of Civil Defense have been fulfilled. Many houses built with projecting eaves in the last 50 years have had their roofs ripped clean off, slightly loose corrugated iron was ripped off homes and made lethal missiles, and there are very few of the newer homes whose plate glass and jalousied windows were apparently able to withstand winds that were steady for long periods at more than 115 mph. iii l Iron roofs, coconuts, large branches, even trees, signs, shingles, buckets etc. hurtled througl} the air. From Wintbefg through Mafolie to Crown Mountain the story of wind damage is the same, and the situation is rumored to be worse on the North Side and at Mandahl which are cut off by road blockages. From the waterfront with bin- oculars we can see that some landslip and collapse of structures has occurred in the Mafolie area, and the Mafolie rg.ad is blocked by some massive slides of rock, soil and shrubs - something that was to be expected after such heavy soaking rains (8 inches in 10 hours?) accompanied by such high winds that loosened broad sheets of pro- tective soil and vegetation. Rumors telling of disastrous landslip attended by loss of life con- tinue to dribble in from Fortuna - Bordeaux where most residents elected to stay despite the absence of a local medical center. On the East End by contrast tidal surge caused much damage, inundating and largely destroying three beach resorts and causing heavy damage at Vessup and Benner Bays. Fortunately most of the housing at Frydendal appears to be saved. The surge in the east was apparently less than at Charlotte Amalie, and there was no 'calm' on the north, suggesting that the eastern limit of the eye may have been Nadir, Donoe and Wint- berg (and missing Tutu?). Whether for this reason or because of the soundness of the structures, roof anchoring and steel-louvred windows, the general damage levels in the Tutu area appear relatively low. Flooding is the serious problem here. The Mylner Shopping Center is under 4 feet of water and all of the three guts that join at Fort Mylner backed up and flooded the houses near them to as much as two feet deep. But the providence that spared Tutu was apparently the death-dealing blow that struck Nadir and Bovoni. The millions of gallons that rushed past Fort Mylner down narrow Turpentine Run met the tidal surge head-on and led to a flood back-up of between 10 and 15 feet, and possibly more, at Nadir. Some houses may have been completely inundated, and reliably verified loss of life here already insures that Linda will be the worst killer-hurricane in Virgin Islands ' history. We know little about St. John except that the planned evacuation of campers and of the exposed residents of Cruz 'Bay to the Nazareth School at Redhook was only partially completed when Linda hit, although it appears that the worst section of the storm probably affected the southern portions of the island only. iv - 1 . ! I I I i Most of the readers of this limited edition will b~ city residents and will know the scale of the d~vastation here in Charlotte Amalie. The compact stone building of the Danish period with their strong wooden and metal shutters were models of resilience as, they were in 1916, 1871, and 1867, and although the tidal surge passed over Main Street in many places there are some business buildings whose merchandise is largely undamaged. But such buildings are a minority in the area between Main Street and the waterfront where tidalsurge and floodwater back-up to- gether with the high level of window and door breakage have insured that most first-floor merchandise has been written off. The worst damage to the commercial area is concentrated between the Center cinema and the Post Office and hetween St. Peter's and the market (where back-up was particularly bad). In the district behind St. Peter's hundreds are homeless as a result of high wind damage combined with an extra- ordinary and unexpected flood back-up. It" appears also that the dead center of the eye was here for upwards of 45 minutes in an area with many wooden houses. Some of the shouses imploded and collapsed. The scale of damage here and at Nadir and Fortuna may turn out to be the surprises and the real tragedies of the storm. Equally disastrous yet expected were the disasters at Pearson Gar- dens, Altona-Contant, Frenchtown, and Nisky. From the Antilles Air- boat dock through Honduras, Demerara and Frenchtown is a wasteland from which all residents were fortunately evacuated, and similar disaster befell the warehouses and homes tretching back from Crown Bay between Wayne Aspinall School and the Sub-Base. Fortunately disaster here was foreseen and loss of life averted by evacuation. Some relief supplies are already corning in by helicopter and this may well be our only link with the outside world for some days. Word from Truman Field is that the airport is a tangled mass of bushes, wire, trees, mud, metalwork, sand, stones and water, and that households in the area had water and mud up to 2 and 3 feet in their homes. Most people were evacuated to the College. Electric lines are down throughout the island and it is estimated that the earliest that electricity will be restored, with the help of linemen from Puerto Rico and the mainland, will be 2 weeks. Only now do we realize that so many of the supermarkets, mini-marts and food wholesale warehouses were liable to flooding from either tidal surge or overland torrents or both. We can oniy hope that Sub-Base and the West India Dock will be cleared rapidly enough to get relief supplies in. Emergency food supplies are available for the moment at St. Peter's, Lincoln, and Nazareth schools. The Office of the Director of Civil Defense and the Office of the Governor have issued the following pro- clamations and warnings •••.....•....• v A journalist with crisper English will very probably report a hurricane at least as disastrous as this before 2000. Such storms have come on average once every 33 years in the last 150 years, and there is no scien- tific reason to believe that such a storm will not come in the next 25 years, '," even though it has been 57 years since the last storm of this type hit St. Thomas directly. What is clear is that these future hurricanes of the magni- tude of 1867, 1871, and 1916 will cause an unprecedented amount of damage on St. Thomas and St. Croix since, in these 57 years, the U. S. Virgin Islands have been transformed from the 'poor men' to the 'rich men' of the Caribbean. There is now a vast amount of loss (in dollar value) such that hurricanes of secondary force, e. g., that of 1932, were they to pass over St. Thomas now, would cause far more dollar damage than the disastrous whirls of 1867, 1871 and 1916 did. " The amount that will undoubtedly be lost when the hypothetical Linda and her awesome sisters hit the 'American Paradise' has been compounded and is being compounded every day; for every day there are new immi- grants to the Virgin Islands--mainly continentals--who are told, and may want to believe, that the hurricane danger is minimal or non-existent. There is at least one generation of Virgin Islanders, and perhaps two, who share the 'hurricane myth'. It is for the education of these people (primarily) that the first part of this report was written, but it will also provide information for any group, government agency etc. that wishes to place the recent past in perspective. This section of the report sets out a chronology and classification" of all the tropical cyclones that have vi l j I -, I , I I passed within 200 miles of St. Thomas since 1866 and indicates the potential damage-producing characteristics of these storms .. It pre- dicts the chances of future occurrence of such storms on a yearly basis and on a weekly basis during the hurricane seaS0n. Attempts are made in part two to assess the nature and extent of damage produced by these storms--by wind, tidal surge, flood, pressure changes etc. - - and to suggest thereby the potential damage-producing characteristics of the storms that will inevitably hit St. Thomas in the next 100 years. These estimates are crude, particularly those used to predict probable precipitation levels and flood damage potential. They are also as accurate as is possible without a heavily-funded research endeavor, and as accurate as is necessary to. convince homemaker and businessman of the danger of hurricanes. When the hurricane reality (parts 1 & 2) is compared with hurricane conceptions and views of the hurricane hazard (part 3) the rationale of this report is transparent: a vast and dangerous discrepancy between the two is documented, and this must needs be made part of the Virgin Islander's consciousness by government agencies, educational establish- ments, citizens' groups, communications media, etc., if a future cata- strophe is to be averted or at least mitigated. Part three should aid these groups in pinpointing the inaccuracies, misinformation, and mis- v'ii leading analogs of the populace, and provide an initial basis for a hurri- cane preparedness 'talk-iti' at the community and, ideally, at house-to- house levels. (Talk-ins of the latter type would' of course be dependent on costly and complex simulations of the passag.eof future probabl,e hurricanes- -what was to be the final part of this report). In the absence of such detailed and intensive studies and subsequent talk-ins it will be necessary to focus hurricane education programs upon certain groups, and it is the major purpose of part four to show which groups--by age, sex, housing status, provenance, religious affiliation, former hurricane experience etc. - - are most in need of hurricane education. Part four identifies those who are unaware of, and make few if any of the necessary preparations f@r, a hurricane when one is forecast. No more than the crudest indications of the scale of preparedness for a severe hurricane are documented, but these suffice to portend a great future disaster. viii I I PART I: TROPICAL CYCLONES CHARACTER AND FREQUENCIES IN ST. THOMAS Definitions ~. Tropical cyclones and their damaging effects are known in and through- out the West Indies. They are of three types: tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes. The basis for differentiation among the several types is the maximum wind speed, and the standard definitions adopted here follow Dunn and Miller, 1 and Cry,2 and Cry, Haggard, and White. 3 Tropical depressions have wind speeds up to 38 miles per hour, while tropical storms have wind speeds ranging from 38 to 73 miles per hour. Hurricanes have wind speeds of at least 74 and as much as 200 miles per hour. All three have certain characteristics in common. l Gordon E. Dunn and Banner I. Miller, Atlantic Hurricanes, Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University, 1960, pp. 9-10. 2George W. Cry, "Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic: Tracks and Frequencies of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms, 1871-1963 .. " U. S. Weather Bureau .. Technical Paper No. 55, Washington, D. C., 1965 .. pp. 2-3. 3George W. Cry .. William H. Haggard, and Hugh S. White .. "North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: Tracks and'Frequencies of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 1886-1958 .. "U. S. Weather Bureau, Technical Paper No. 36 .. Washington .. D. C ... 1959 .. pp. 1-2. ., ~~.<> j, ~ .... :«'~'.:" ~: ' (3A) ," .', 'rl. ,---- ,--., , r--: I,' I j nn us Es ?H. 2~. 75 ni]ht uej;!:'. 29.30 'r- , I 29. S:; I I 29.02 P.R. 1r r /' r·', r'-: «,,0) G 105 G 111 S 75-30 S 80-85 (<:GO) «60) «i,O) r 117 G 130 S 85-JO S 95-100 SE ESE hea,\'y l'aii) : !,Lin ';:in;"r mod 5urqei/'"' ma j or floocf sur9c rnirJ \.,-ir).) "July'G-a G 85 G 85 min wind "1~9~0~1~~~~~~3~r~,~~+-~~C~~~ __ -r ___ '~~ ~ ____ _t-----2-9~.~8~6_+--------t_-----i_--~S~6~0~-~6~5_t--~S~6~0--~6~5+_ _______ +_~E='S=E~i_s~u~r~-'~'e~------ Sept 11-1 (TS) G 73 G 78 =1~9=0=1~ __ -4~~~3=B~n~~~~-=B~n_--+_---c~n--~~----+_----2=9~.7~8=+--~2~9~.~8=2=+ _____ ~~~S~5~5~-~6~0~ __ ~S~5~5--=6=0+-__ =1=2 __ --+---E=,S=E='~~. ______ . __ __ )<::t 9 (TS) 1901 (3Bs) . Bs A 2ept 2-3 1906 3Bn " -j I3n Cn .,-ept 26 (TS) 29.62 29.72 29.82 «60) G 50 5 39 55-60 SE ;l~9=0=8~' ~ __ +-~(~3~C~) ____ ~_~~=s~ __ -+ ______ +-____ +-__ =29~.B~,1~-4 ______ +-___ ~ ____ f<~6=0=)~+-____ -+, _______ +-__ ~E: __ j--~---~_ ,'lug '22 (TS) ,. major 1909' 3C Ds 29.72 <60 W flood ;'iov 13-14 (TS) '~1~9=0~9~~~~~~3~C~~_+----=c~n~ __ -+--------_+--__ ~--~29~.~71~--~~2~0~.~3~~~.+-______ ~ ___ <~6~O __ _+ __ ------+-----__ --+-----. __ _+_---__ - __ --_ Aug 24-25 (TS) ,'··;1~~::i::;:.b:..,.,,'~'-::: ,,.:-.,h-_.;3:.;;C:..., __ .....;+-__ ~c::::s ____ _+~--=-C=s---t-------~-----4------+-----+---_<--'6=O::.---l ______ -+-----+--,.::E,--i-------- ,Sept 6-7. G 70 '~.J.91(h";~;;">.3e~;i- Bs 29. i~ <60 S 54 18-20 .;;: AU9,.10cU ;S,'~tiJj''f1,,;fl.,. J .~~~52~·::·:"2~;.:---l_-==~.:...-l---::.:...;i:...··D,.:-.S-: ___ ~ ______ 2~~~ -,.-------i---- --- f-.-- --- :{g~-- f-------- ___ 1_2_._5 _______ E_SE_' - mod'; 'f10c,,1'7 -=1.::9-=1...:(,= __ ~I_~::2:.;.B:::.S----+_---B:::..:::.S---+-----+2:::.'J~.:_:2:::.0=_+-~2:::.9~.:..:6:.:5=-_~-----_+~1:.:5~O:..:+-1f_--.:::S'__'9.;2-_+------+-----_j_.--~E:::., --+7~:'-'-,Ii ncl i\l1g 30 J G 65 mi1):--;:~r!;r~ 1916 3C Ds 29.20 S 40-50 ()et 9-10 1916 ,1". Aug 28-29' ',;~' '\ A Bn En 28.10 28.10 28.56 G 160 ~ 125 r; 143 5 llO .r' mod. fl b~;r- SE BurrJe ; major ~ ... lr.{:\': mod. t·l.lnJl SE 1924 ''2Bn , Sept 12-14 ('::) G 130 min. \'Lind';: '~1_9_28~~---lj.-~2~B~S~.-_4~--,;B~S----_+-~A~--_+::2:...,~ • .::5:::.0-~ __ 2:::.9~.3~0~ __ +_~2~b:.:.~~:.:Q'_'+~1:::.~:.:,5~_t:.;;S~9~0:...-~1:.:0:.;;0~1_------r_--___ 1 ________ ,~"~,'a~)L'o:.:1__'·~'...::u:.:r...:y".:~~ ""'Sept.2 1930., ,; 3C Cs 29.76 " 3Bs Bs 29.52 sept to-;,p 1931' , ' ~ept 2\5-27 .: f .F.. G 117 G 91 1932 'f. ',,' :'2B5 2s Sn 29.20 29.::5" 120 5 85-90 S 60-7.0 july 25:-<2;; (I'S) G 78 G 91 ~1~9~3~3~--'~'~},r,~3=~~--_+----L~-;S----_+---B~S~--_+---_1-~2:::.9~.~8~9~ __ r-~2~9~.=o~5~ ______ _t---=S~G~0--'-_+~S-=G~0--:...7:::.0~1----~1-2--1----~-'[ __ -; __ ~ __ ,~ __ ',ug 29 , 11") c, in. flo,;,:: 193 J' '.,.' ·=::.3:::." ~:';"-:"-:'':;;'';+--,-__ ~f;:;,'''~. ":-__ _+--------_+---~-~2:.:9:...:.:...:8:...:6;......--I_-----_+-----+---"-s< ~ 0 ~.ug 25 (TS) " q 10 E 14 SE ,apt'12-13 , . I .~ 31 L945 ,_ .. +...~::3C'=_·:.::;""i!:.,_-+-_~c:.!n!_ __ _+-----+_--I_----+I-"-""--_I~--+-...:s'-· .::2..:.4_+ ____ + ___ --=:1.:::.6_+ .. ___ + _____ ~ flocd G ::,n min. -r _______ -r~1...:2:.;;0__'_+-~S~4~()_-~4~S __ j----------~--~1.~ii---~-------t_s~u~r:...:':~12~--:...:'j,~:; .. _.· 1..1 ~S mi~'. ~ 1r. 28.26 Os I !.;, , 137 3r. Ds S 55-65 I 1. - 6 - 10- Year Moving Average for Frequency of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes (SLThomas) 1867-1967 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 Figure 1 • 1940 Number of hurricanes in 10 - year periods centered on sixth year 1950 ·1960 .~:~. !".':.;:-::--::.:...--_ --;::-::!:'~:.:h== ~":::::'-:...-:....~ .. -.:':::-:~ ~ ~:.-=-::='~-- . · J .. ),f .. . //1(, ... ,,"L . " . ~' -.;~ .,t ;1 -'" -.r~ '"'I';' .. . ,'lIE TO\VN OF RT. THOMAS, NEARLY DEST;ROYED BY A HURRICANE, AUGUST 21, 1871.-[8EE PAGE ~69.] r --J ---1 -i / - --I I , \ i - 9 - Probabilities of Tropical Cyclones in St. Thomas The probabilities of tropical cyclones affecting the Virgin Islands are presented in Table 2, which compares our calculations with those of Hope 13 and Neumann and those of vanEepoel, Owen, and Dammann of the Carib- bean Research Institute (column 4). 14 A probability is taken here to mean a percentage chance of occurrence. In this case, it is the most likely pattern of occurrence if 48 tropical cyclones were generated in 100 years. A frequency is taken to mean the actual pattern of occurrence of these 48 tropical cyclones between 1867 and 1967. Hope and Neumann's probabilities (column 3) are based on tropical cyclone occurrences from 1886 to 1968. The probabilities calculated by the Clark group (column 1) are based on the revised chronology of 48 hurricanes and tropical storms occurring between 1867 and 1967. The second column summarizes the actual frequency pattern of these 48 storms. At least one tropical cyclone affected St. Thomas in 39 of the last 100 years (frequency), and the probabilities of such an occurrence pre- dicted by the Clark group and by Hope and Neumann are similar: 42 and 47 years in 100, respectively. Probability of occurrence of at least two hurricanes per year is • 06 (one year in 16) as calculated by 13 John R. Hope and Charles J. Neumann, Climatology of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones ·by T~oa:rici Orie-H~lf D·egree Latitude-Longitude Boxes, E. S. S. A. Technical Memorandum WBTM SR-44, Weather Bureau, Southern Region, Fort Worth, Texas, February, 1969. 14 Robert P. vanEepoe1, Wadsworth Owen, and Arthur E. Dammann, Notes on Some Oceanographic and Marine Factors in the U. S. Virgin Islands, St. Thomas: Caribbean Research Institute, Special Publica- tion No.2, March, 1971. TABLE 2 PROBABiLiTY' AND'FR'EQUENCY OF 'TROPICAL Cye'LONES ON ST.mOMA'S Number of tropical cyclones per year o per year at least 1 per year, at least 2 Probabilitie s based on the occurrence of 48 cyclones 1867-1967. .58 .42 .06 Frequencies- based on the timing of the 48 cyclones that affected the V. I. 1867-1967. • 61 .39 .07* Hope and Neumann: Caribbean Probabilities based Research on storms passing' Institute (1971) through the grid block Probabilies bounded by based on hurri- lat. 170 30'-20° 0' N cane occurrences long. 700 01-7~ 30'N in St. Thomas. 1886-:-196a. / ' 1680-1963. • 53 ~ 94 .47 • 05 • 13 .00 per y~ar, , , .' " '" ,.' " , , ' ' .. , . ' " , , , ' .' ~, . , , *There were two years in which three hurricanes affected the Virgin Islands between 1867 and 1967: 1901 and 1916. ~ 0 - 11 - the Clark group and. 13 (one year in 8) according to Hope and Neumann. The actual frequency of occurrence of at least two tropical cyclones per year in the last 100 years is • 07 (one year in 14). Understandably, Hope and Neumann present probabilities of tropical storm occurrence that are somewhat larger than ours. They included in their calculations all tropical storms and hurricanes that passed through an arbitrarily defined study area: the two and one-half degree latitude-longitude box E...0ntaining the Virgin Islandsl(1at. 170 30' - 200 0'N, ? ~ / long. 700 0' - 720 30'W). The U. S. Virgin Islands are southwest of the center in this grid block. By contrast, the Clark group chose an area centered on the island of St. Thomas and counted only hurricanes and tropical storms that had a noticeable effect on the Virgin Islands. Con- sequently our results are more directly applicable to the Virgin Islands than are those of Hope and Neumann. Despite differences in time-period, area, and focus, however, the similarities of the probabilities calculated by Hope and Neumann and by the Clark group are striking. Both results contrast sharply with probabilities recently presented in a publication of the Caribbean Research Institute (1971).15 How these probabilities were derived is not explained, but it may be that the authDrs were. concerned only with the largest hurricanes. Apparently 15· .. Ibid. - 12 - all hurricanes from earliest recorded dates to 1963 were considered. As many of these early hurricanes went unrecorded, or were associated in records only with the Caribbean island that suffered the worst impact of the hurricane, any calculations based on hurricar;es of record in the last 283 years are bound to underestimate the frequency of their occurrence. In addition, the probability of occurrence of hurricanes as presented by the C. R. 1. monograph appears to be related positively to the size of land 16 mass. Whatever the methods used, the probabilities derived are misleading. Tropical Cyclone Characteristics and Classifications To this point no distinctions have been made among the 48 tropical cyclones, although obviously they varied in many ways. Our ultimate concern was with estimating the potential damage that might be inflicted by tropical cyclones of various types. Thus, in accumulating data particular attention was paid to those elements of tropical cyclones that were measurable predictors of damage (Table 1). Occasionally, informa- 16In the table of probability given in the C. R. 1. monograph. Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico have very high probabilities compared with the Virgin Islands. In the probabilities given by Hope and Neumann, most of the grid blocks covering Hispaniola and' Cuba have a lesser probability of tropical storms and hurricanes than the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico has approximately the sa.me probability of occurrence as the Virgin Islands. Presumably the number of hurricanes affecting the large land masses was compared to the number of hurricaneE affecting the small land masses, without any weighting for size. - 13 - tion was limited or contradictory. In such cases, attempts were made to reconstruct the storm usihg the most reliable information available. For 37 of these 48 tropical storms and hurricanes, data drawn from Mitchell, Stone, Garriott and the local newspapers proved satisfactory. For the remainder, classifications were interpolated from known tra- jectories and hurricane data for Puerto Rico, Tortola. St. Kitts, etc. These eleven storms--essentially weak-..,.are indicated in parentheses in Table 1, column 1. In determining the key characteristics in hurricane classification special attention was paid initially to the three major effects of hurri- canes: rains (either beneficial or destructive), winds, and tidal surge. As regards the winds, it was important to establish pressure readings or actual wind speeds or both at the center of the storm. Similarly, angle of approach, central pressure, highest wind speeds, and speed of the forward movement were needed in computing the level of tidal surge. Rainfall computation, however, depended heavily on non- tropical cyclone variables. Nevertheless, for rainfall as with the other two elements, it was necessary to know the position of the storm relative to St. Thomas; its line of passage (directly over, north, south, and east of the island); and distance from St. Thomas. - 14 - From this list of characteristics, three facts were seen as critical: 1. wind speeds at St. Thomas; 2. the line of the tropical cyclone's passage (north or south); and 3. the distance in miles of the storm center from St. Thomas. Three ranges of wind speed at St. Thomas were recognized: less than 74 miles per hour (storm type 3 in Table 1); 74 to 120 miles per hour (storm type 2); and over 120 miles per hour (storm type 1). Increased damage levels were related to winds of the three types, as is seen in Part 2. Tropical storms that passed directly over St. Thomas were designated as type 'A'; those that passed within 50 miles as type 'B'; and those that passed 50 to 200 miles from St. Thomas as type 'C'. In addition, uncapitalized 'n' (north) and's' (south) are used. Thus, a 2Bs storm is one that passes within 50 miles to the south of St. Thomas, but not directly over it. In such a storm (hurri- cane) Sto Thomas would experience windspeeds of 74 to 120 miles per hour. Theoretically, there are 18 possible types of tropical cyclones in the classification. But as applied to St. Thomas, certain types were combined or excluded. For .example, St. Thomas is so small that an 'A' type hurricane would completely cover the island. In this case, the , appending of an 'n' or's' would be meaningless. Similarly, 'C'type storms pass so far away that their passages to the north or south, 50 - 15 - or 200 miles away. have only minor effects on wind speeds, tidal surge, and rainfall. Rather, the most important characteristic is the strength of the storm, which is best shown by the wind speeds in St. Thomas. Similarly, because of the distance of the eye from St. Thomas. there were no winds over 120 miles per hour (type 1) recorded over the island in either 'B' or 'C' type tropical cyclones. In total, nine types of tropical cyclones that affected St. Thomas are recognized in Table 3. The Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones of VarIous Types In the past one-hundred years, four hurricanes of A-type have passed directly over the Virgin Islands. The hurricanes of 1867 (October 29) and 1916 (August 21 and 22) are considered the most memorable examples of this most severe hurricane experienced in the northern Caribbean. In the 100 years preceding 1867 at least two storms of this magnitude affected the Virgin Islands, 17 and this suggests that the probability of occurrence of such storms is 3 to 4 percent or one in every 25 to 33 years (Table 4). Five out of the six A-type hurricanes of the last 200 years occurred between Supplication Day (July 25) and the local Thanks- giving Day (October 25). The one exception, the hurricane of October 29, 1867, was probably the most severe A-type hurricane experienced in the Virgin Islands. A -type hurricanes have occurred either early or late in the season. No hurricanes of this type have occurred during the month of S~ptember. 17These were the storms of Augu~t 31, 1772 and August 2 and 3, 1837. - 16 - TABLE 3 Frequency of Nine Types of Tropical Cyclones Experienced in St. Thomas, 1867-1967 Wind Speeds at St. Thomas over 120 mph (type 1) 74 - 120 mph (type 2) less .than 74 mpl: (type 3) _ , - Total . , Distance of storm center from St. Thomas Directly Within 50 Within 50 MOIle than Total over miles and miles and 50 miles St. Thomas to the nortb to the soutl: away ··Bn Bs C>:,1 2 0 0 0 2 1 2 4 1 8 . . . . , . ,'. , . .... - - ... , . . , I 1 8 5 24 38 , ' 4 10 9 25 48 , .' _,_ 1 -f' The D-type storms of Table 1 were combined with C-type storms. Type· A Bs Bn C':~ - 17 - TABLE 4 Occurre~ceof Tropical Cyclones of Various Types Total Frequency Cumulative Probability CumulaUv€ Number of Type Frequency of Type Probability of Types 4 .04 .04 .04 9 .09 . 13 • 07 10 . 10 .23 • 07 25 .24 .47 · 22 .. . . ':~The D-type storms of Table 1 were combined with C-storms. .04 • 11 • 18 .40 , A majority of hurricanes that have affecte'd the Virgin Islands have been of the C-type (Table 4). Of the storms that have come outside of the official hurricane season, all but one have been of this less destruc- tive type (Table 5). They make up a large portion of the storms in the early part of the hurricane season (August 10 - September 2) and in the late season (September 17 - October 27), and are outnumbered by A- and B-type storms at the height of the hurricane season (August 26 - September 18). Only one B-type has been recorded outside of August - 18 - and September, and most (11 to 19) occurred in the three weeks at the height of the hurricane season. There is a clear tendency for the less damaging 'Bn' variant to occur early in the season whereas the 'Bs' type tends to occur later. -.~ . -TABLE 5 Frequency of Tropical Cyclones During Selected Periods Type Jan. 1 July17 July25 Aug. 2 Aug.l0 Aug.lS Aug. 26 Sept. 3 Cont. July16 July24 Aug. 1 Aug.9 Aug. 17 Aug. 25 Sept. 2 Sept. 10 Below A .00 .00 .00 .00*1 .00 .01 .01*2 .00 Bs .00 .00 .00 .01 .01 .01 .00 .02 Bn .00 .00 .00 .02 .00 .01 .03 .03 \ C .01 .00 -.01 .00 .03 .06 .04 _.02 Tota .01 .00 .01 .03 .04 .09 .OS .07 Type Sept. 11 Sept. 19 Sept. 27 Oct.4 Oct.12 Oct.20 Oct.2S Nov.5 Sept. IS Sept. 26 Oct.3 Oct. 11 Oct.19 oct. 27 Nov. 4 Dec.31 A .00 .00 .00 .01 .00 .00 .01 .00 Bs .02 .01 .00 .01 .00 .00 .00 .00 Bn .01 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 .00 C*3 /; .02 .02 .01 .00 .01 .00 .00 .02 , .. . ~ ~ Tot'al - r. .05 .03 .01 .02 .01 .00 . ';;'" .01 .02 .~ , !l. .. ' *1 ..... ~ Hurricane of lS37 occurred at this time. ... period. • ' •• ; ~ '. w • : *2 Hurricane of 1772 also occurred in this .. ,., <' .. " *3 D-type storms of Table 1 were combined with C-storms. ,. . ~ , . ,~ - 19 - PART II: THE DESTRUCTIVE FORCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON ST. THOMAS Wind Damage When a hurricane strikes a populated area, much of the damage will be cause.ddirectly by the intense winds. - In this study, therefore, an attempt has been made to reconstruct the character of the winds asso- ciated with each hurricane in the chronology. For most of the tropical cyclones affecting the Virgin Islands, however, the available information from newspapers and climatological data is very limited. In many cases the only references to winds were reports of damage, as in 1916: The fall of the coal cranes afford the best idea of the force of the wind. These huge machines were made to withstand a wind velocity of 100 miles an hour. but their collapse during the second part of the storm proves the speed of the wind to have been greater. The sight of coal cranes lying in a heap of bent and twisted ruins is an extraordinary one, a part of each hanging in the sea. Who among us saw those monster machines put up, each taking months to erect and each having no less than 35, 000 rivets, ever imagined they could be wrecked by wind! 18 Reports such as this indicated extremely strong winds producing heavy damage, and it became clear from numerous newspaper accounts that such damage was produced by winds that exceeded 120 mph (type-l winds). Other accounts suggested more moderate wind speeds: 18St• ThornasTidende, October 14, 1916 - 20 - Some houses were entirely gutted of their contents: others had a wing carried away, others the roof, whilst such loose objects as windows and doors were nowrgere to be found except scattered abroad in fragments. 1 Damage levels such as these appeared to result from winds ranging from 74 to 120 mph Itype-2). Winds of lower speeds produced negigible damage: Accounts from the country rural districts tell of no damage beyond the breaking and uprooting of trees and the destruction of fences.20 This level of damage was caused by winds below 74 mph (type-3). In lieu of specific accounts of wind damage or actual wind speeds, the maximum sustained wind speeds for a majority of the hurricanes on the chronology were derived from the central pressure readings. The basis for this interpolation was Kraft's equation, 21 Vmax= 14 j 1013-P c where V max represents the maximum sustained winds at the surface (30 ft. and lower) in knots, and Pc is the central pressure of the hurri- cane in millibars. 20 . Ibid, August 19, 1893. , 21Charles Holliday, On the Maximum Sustained Winds Occurring in Atlantic Hurricanes, E. S. S. A. Technical Memorandum WBTM -SR-45, Weather Bureau Southern Region, Fort Worth, Texas, May 1969. Kraft's formula is used by the National Hurricane Research Center. However, other formulas have been developed. - 21 - Based on these figures for maximum sustained winds. it proved possible to compute the peak gusts associated with several storms by multiplying by a gust faCtor of 1. 3 as suggested by .Haddock. 22 Wind speeds associated with storlns that did not pass directly over the island were found by using a modification of a graph by Fri8dmann23 relating the winds on either side of the storm to the central pressure reading. In checking our interpolations against newspaper accounts. they were found to be reliable in nearly every instance. On October 9th and 10th of 1916. a hurricane passed directly over the island of St. Thomas. The central pressure was approximately 28. 10 inches. Applying our working model. the maximum sustained wind speed is found to be 125 mph with gusts upward to 160 mph. (This is supported by the newspaper inference concerning the coal cranes). 24 This hurri- cane caused extensive damage to St. Thomas. but because it passed 22Gerald Haddock. IJHurricane Load Criteriall • Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority. Electrical Planning and Research Division. EPR2-072. San Juan. Puerto Rico. n. d., p. 9. 23D• G. Friedman, "The Hurricane Hazard in Louisiana". Un:- published Report, Research Department, Travelers Insurance Companies, May 20, 1966, pp. 1-5. Applying firm data 'from our chronology to Friedman's graph (page 4a of his articel) we obtained an empirical relation for the Virgin Islands which, when checked against the remain- ing data, gave favorable results. 24St•· Thomas Tidende, October 14, 1916. - 22 - 45 miles to the north of St. Croix it is estimated that the sustained winds on St. Croix did not exceed 90 mph. This hurricane was classified as type-A for St. Thomas while it was a type-Bn for st: Croix. Wind speeds were computed in the same manner for the hurricane of September 14, 1876, (which passed over St. Croix and caused only minor damage to St. Thomas) and for many other hurricanes on the chronology. With these wind velocities it is possible to estimate resultant damage. James Power25 cites from the American Standards Association factors to be used when determining the velocity pressure of winds on structures of various types (Table 6). Using the formula for velocity presure, 26 where V is the qo = • 00256 V2 maximum wind velocity in mph and qo is the pressure in pounds per square foot, it can be determined whether or not a particular structure will be able to withstand the winds of a given hurricane. For example, the velocity pressure of the winds from the hurricane in October of 1916 was 40 pounds per square foot and 65.5 pounds per 25 James Power, "Buildirig Construction and Precautionary Mainte- .. nance in Hurrican Areas lf, from Final' Rep'ort'~{ theCaribbeaiI Hurri':" cane Seminar, heid at Ciudad Trujillo D. N., Dominican Republic, February, 1956, p. 295. 26lliid, p. 293 - 23 - square foot for the gusts. The subsequent force applied to the average roof is 1. 625 times greater than the gust velocity pressure, or 107 pounds per square foot. Obviously very few roofs can withstand pressures 6f this magnitude and consequently they were blown off. In the past 100 years in St. Thomas two storms were in the type-1 wind speed group (1867 and 1916). Nine of them or 19 percent had wind speeds between 74 and 120 mph winds (type-2). The remaining 37 hurri- canes were capable of causing only minor damage, with small shacks and fences being destroyed. Roofs Mainframe Exterior Walls TABLE 6 Factors for Determining Velocity Pressures 1. 625 times the velocity pressure (qo) 1. 3 times the velocity pressure (q 0) 1. 3 times the velocity pressure (qo) Overhanging Eves and Cornices 2. 6 times the velocity pressure (qo) --- J - 24 - Tidal Surge for St. Thomas , .. , The St. Thomas Tidende; the St. Croix Avis, and The Virgin Islands Daily News have reported higher than normal tides associated with hurri- canes twelve times since 1867. The reports list damage, but not high water marks, and consequently estimates of tidal surge are qualitative. The newspaper reports of tidal surge fall into three groups based on the character and locale of destruction. The first group is based on news- paper reports of heavy damage extending inland from the waterfront. They are epitomized in reports of the storm of 1867, an example of which follows: The buildings at Honduras wharf broken up. .. The jetties at the coaling wharf of the Royal Mail Steam Packet Company, totally destroyed .•• Hazzell's new wharf ..• the jetties destroyed. The premises on the other side •.. jetties broken up ..• the houses a little higher up the hill .•. all broken up. The dwellings and the coal shed at the wharf of the Compagnie Generale Transatlantique destroyed. The barracks in the rear of Fort Christian, capable of accommo.:.. dating a thousand men destroyed. 27 In sum, waterfront facilities were damaged heavily, and there are obvious indications of heavy damage from the surge further inland. Six storms of this type affected St. Thomas 1867-1967, and these are classified as having produced tidal surges of type one (Table 7). 27 ....... ' ....... . St. Thomas Tidende, November 13. 1867 - 25 - The second group of reports describes heavy damage only in the waterfront area. The storm of 1893 provides a good example: THE SEA from morn till eve was much agitated and in its rage lashed the shore with such tremendous force that not even the most substantial wharves could resist the impact, many of the wood as well as stone receiving very extensive injuries, some being totally destroyed .•. our GREAT FLOATING DOCK stood majestically by her cables. 28 This, and other reports, indicate extensive damage only on the water- front. Tidal surges of this type were described in association with two hurricanes that affected St. Thomas 1867 -196 7. These were classified as type-two tidal surges (Table 7). The third group of newspaper reports describe slight damage to the waterfront or to ships in the harbor or to both. The papers report heavy seas or limited waterfront damage. An example is the storm that passed St. Thomas in April of 1956 in which "Shops and establishments along the shore were flooded". 29 There is no mention of widespread dest ruction associated with tidal surges of this type (Table 7). This three-fold classification of tidal surges derived from newspaper accounts was compared with quantitative estimates of surge heights. 28 " '" ,",' , ' , , " ' " St. Thomas Tidende, August 19, 1893. 29 - ' ' - ' , , '," ' ",- ,- -.- ,-'- ' ' -" - The (St. Thomas) Daily News, August 14, 1956 ? - 20 - These estimates were obtained by using a profile for a standard hurricane developed by Jelesnianski. 30 --There are four curves in this profile. Two give surge heights for hurricanes with radii of maximum winds of thirty nautical miles. The larger curve is for a storm with a crossing angle of 90 degrees, the smaller is for a storm with a crossing angle of 140 degrees. The two smaller curves are for hurricanes with radii of maxi- mum winds of fifteen nautical miles. As with the first set, the larger of these curves is for a hurricane with a crossing angle of 90 degrees and the smaller has a crossing angle of 140 degrees. Three problems arise when using this profile to predict surge in the Virgin Islands. The first is that the data for these profiles were obtained from hurricanes that made landfall on the U. S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts. These are open coasts with long continental shelves and as such would tend to generate a higher surge. The other problems are that seven of the fourteen hurricanes for which surge was predicted in the Virgin Islands had winds of one hundred and twenty miles per hour or over, and the crossing angle of all storms was less than 90 degrees. These last two factors would tend to increase the surge. However, even if they were 30 A standard hurricane has winds of one hundred miles per hour and a forward speed of fifteen miles per hour. See Arnold L. Sugg, A Mean Stor~ 'St:irge Profiie, E. S. S. A. Technical Memorandum WBTM-SR-49, Weather Bureau, Southern Region, Fort Worth, Texas, December, 1969. - 27 - taken together they would not counter-balance the first factor. Therefore, the surge for the Virgin Islands will be lower than that suggested by Jelesnianski's profile. 31 To take account of these "problems twenty-five percent is subtracted from the tidal- surge heights yielded by Jelesnianski' s profile, and a minimum-maximum range of tidal surge is given (Table 7). The profile predicted high surge for fifteen hurricanes, and the news- papers reported surge damage for twelve of these. For the three cases unreported in the newspapers the profile predicted very low surge levels (two feet or less). And such a small level is unlikely to produce news- worthy damage. 310Empirical Relationships of the Central Pressures in Hurricanes to the Maximum Surge and Stor-m Tide lf, Monthly" Wea:th.er" Review, 85, pp. 168-172. Discussion with Robert Calvesbert, E. S. S. A. Commonwealth Climatologist, San Juan, Puerto Rico, on 1-23-1972. - 28 - TABLE 7 Tidal Surge Chronology Type of Type of newspaper- Tidal surge tropical Winds Date reported in feet':~ cyclone over surges. classifi- 120mph Estimates Min. Max. cation in ( ) Oct 1867 1 7 12 1A x Aug 1871 1 6 8 2A x Sept 1876 3 3 5 3Bs Aug 1893 2 4 5 2Bs Aug 1899 1 6 8 2Bs x July 1901 3 0 2 3Cs Aug 1910 (3) 0 2 3Bs Aug 1916 2 4 6 2Bs Oct 1916 1 6 10 1A x Sept 1928 1 6 8 2Bs x Sept 1931 (3) 0 2 3Bs Sept 1932 1 5 8 2B x Aug 1950 (3) 0 2 3Cs Aug 1956 3 1 3 2Cs Sept 1960 3 0 2 2Bn x ': 5 JJ Extension of the Base for Estimating Hurricane-Related Flood Damage Damages from high winds and tidal surges in the Caribbean are generally associated with hurricanes, but this is not true of flooding which is more likely to occur and cause extensive damage in non- hurricane situations. This is particularly true in the Virgin Islands where recent hurricanes have been of moderate intensity and have not always produced large amounts of rainfall, whereas the long-period rainstorms of May and the Autumn months often deposit five or six inches of rain in a three- or four-day period. In developing a prediction of probable flood damage resulting from hurricanes, therefore, our ~ I - :;5 - limited information was extended by an analysis of flood estimations that followed rainfall instances not associated with tropical cyclones. These floods that result from non -hurricane situations are considered here to be similar in practically all respects to floods produced by hurricanes. Each flood circumstance can also be related to the types of - hurricanes discussed in the previous section in terms of damage. In such a way this process of model reconstruction is one of interchange- ability between hurricanes and storms. The large amount of flooding data available for the period 1955-1971 as found in The (St. Thomas) Daily News and the U. S. Department of Commerce Climatological Data: Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands, dictated the period of extensive study. A total of twenty-three instances of sizeable rainstorms producing flood conditions were identified and analyzed in detail (Table 10). These rainstorms range from torrential downpours lasting a few hours and depositing about two inches of rain to the severe storms of May 1960 and October 1970 which deposited from ten to fifteen inches of rain on St. Thomas in about three days. Using past damage figures from newspaper sources it proved possible to get some damage data for floods since 1955. Unlike information on the physical phenomenon itself, however, such damage figures were hard to find and were often limited in monetary figures to damage con- - 39 - cerning single establishments only. The highest damage figures (also some of the newest) are those of the storm of October, 1970, in which the island suffered. about six million dollars of damage and was declared . . . . . . . . . . . . a disaster area. The (St. Thomas) Daily News of October 8 gives .. accounts from the citizenry describing Main Street as a "river", Mafolie Hill as "Niagara Falls If, and low-lying areas of the islands as the "Missis'sippi Delta during a flood". 37 This flood brought .about damage in dollars far exceeding that of the greatest hurricane of record in 38 St. Thomas. Using these storm data we developed a number of crude graphs relating different characteristics of these storms. Precipitation data for three St. Thomas stations (Charlotte Amalie, Truman Field, and Fort Mylner) for 24-hour, 48-hour, and whole-storm time-periods were plotted against six damage categories. As would be expected, damage was shown to increase as precipitation increased, but there also appears a marked difference in the slopes of the graphs depending on the time period (Table 11). Runoff for Charlotte Amalie, stream discharge rates 37 . , .. . .. The (St. Thomas) Daily News, Oct. 8, 1970, pp. 3,6 . . 38This is due mainly to the fact that the last major destructive hurri- cane occurred in 1916 when population and property values were low as was the value of the dollar. 15 14 13 12 Q.l c 1 1 0 u >- U 10 co u 9 0.. 0 F 8 I- 0 "+- 7 C/) Q.l ..r: 6 u c c 5 c 0 4 +-' co +-' 0.. u 3 Q.l >- 0- 2 co +-' ~ -- ; 0 - -- \I 1/ ( B Storm)· e ~-----------------------------------------------------------------rVery heavy II II .--- - -- A Type Storms _____ --- ~----------------------------------------------------------~-r--THeavy II ~----------------------------------------------~~--------~'~--TModerate-heavy ~------------------------------~----~~----------~~~~------TModerate ~----------------------------~~~--------~~~~--------------TMinor-moderate ~----------------------~~~----------~~~x-------------------1-Minor • (Whole Storm" Precipitation Damage Levels) 100 80 60 40 20 o Percent Frequency of Occurence Figure 2 (Triangles-- "D" storms~ open circles "e" storms) - 41 - for Turpentine Run for 1963-1969, 39 and soil saturation 40 are other flood-related characteristics which were correlated with each other, (and with rainfall totals for the storms and with the damage categories). The crude curves in Table 11 reveal that damage increases as precipita- tion, runoff, and stream discharge increase, and that stream discharge increases as runoff and precipitation increase. The threshold levels for damage are appreciably higher for "whole-storms!! and "47-hour precipitation periods If than for 24-hour precipitation periods. This is particularly true for the f1heavylf and "very heavy" damage categories. More damage occurs under saturated soil conditions than when the soil is comparatively dry (rows 4 and 5 in Table 11). It also proved possible to relate these flood-producing storms directly to the hurricane damage potential models (figure 2). It was found in some cases that a non-hurricane storm that produced flooding could be as potentially damaging as a type lA hurricane, even though it is not accompanied by high winds or tidal surge. A set of precipitation- frequency of occurrence graphs was formulated from which it proved possible to estimate, using certain precipitation amounts occurring in 39 .. , ' ... ,',',." .. ,,' U. S. Geological Survey, If Daily Gage Height and Discharge Data for Turpentine Run, St. Thomas", 1963-1969. 40Bowden et. al., op. cit., Figure 6, p. 46 and Table 8, p. 48, and C. W. Thornthwaite and J. R. Mather, op. cit. hurricanes since 1921, the damage that could be expected from a hurricane that deposited a certain amount of rain on St. Thomas. Using the precipi- tation-damage graph for the whole storm (row 3 in Table 11), damage estimates for certain rainfall amounts can be derived and they can be related readily to ranges of precipitation characteristic of certain types of hurricanes. Thus probably flood damage estimates can be made for hurricanes of four types (A, B, e, D) as well as the percentage frequency of occurrence of varying amounts of precipitation which fell during these storms (figure 2). In such a way it was determined that there is a fifty to sixty percent chance that a "B" type storm will deposit at least four inches of rain and hence produce minor or minor-moderate flood damage. A "B" type hurricane has a forty percent chance of producing five inches of precipi- tation which in turn would cause moderate damage. There is a twenty- five percent chance of such a storm producing about six inches of rain- fall and causing moderate-heavy damage, and a five percent chance of a "B" storm depositing eight inches of precipitation and causing heavy damage. Very heavy damage as a rule is unlikely to occur from a "B" type storm (Table 12). Only one such tropical storm brought very heavy damage during the fifty-year period, that of the storm of September 1928. "e" type storms (those passing fifty to one hundred miles away from St. Thomas) are more likely to produce smaller amounts of precipitation and less damage. In thirty percent of the cases of tropical storm occur- rences 'of type "e" only one inch or less of rain resulted. In only thirty Table 11 Crude Relationships Between Damage Levels and Precipitation, Run-off, ano Stream Discharge, St. Thomas 24-honr precipn. (in inches) 48-hour precipn. (in inches) Whole-storm precipn. (in inches) Whole-storm precipn. Soil Moisture storage < 1.5" Soil Moisture Storage > 1.5" Run-off (in inches)*l Stream Discharge in thousand gallons on heaviest day *2 Minor L.5 3.2 3.8 4.3 3.0 0.5 1,500 *1 Charlotte Amalie. *2 Turpentine Run. i.d. Insufficient data. IWerage Damage Levels Min. -~lod. Mod. Mod.-Heavy 3.0 3.5 4.2 3.7 4.2 4.8 4.4 4.8 6.0 4.4 5.0 7.2 3.8 4.7 5.8 1.0 2.3 4.0 5,000 12,000 30,000 Table 12 Probabilities of Damage Levels in Hurricanes of Various Types. Damage Levels (in dollars) Types of Minor Min.-Mod. Mod. Mod.-Heavy Hurricanes (50-500) (500-5,000) (5,000- (50,000- 50,000) 500,000) A 100 100 ~OO 100 B 60 52 42 36 C 34 26 18 6 D 35 28 18 0 s 33 28 23 16 n 52 50 46 20 Heavy 4.8 5.6 7.8 i.d. Ld. 7.0 50,000+ Heavy (500,000- 5 million) 100 6 0 0 5 0 V. Heavy 5 .. 2 6.0 11.6 i.d. i.d. 10.0 i.d. V. Heavy (5 million + over) Ld. Ld. 0 0 0 0 percent of the storms did minor flood damage occur. Moderate damage is even less likely to occltr having done so less than twenty percent of the time. Only one "ell type storm produced moderate to heavy flood damage during the study period. It was decided that the graphs of IIAII type storms and IIDII type storms were based on three and six cases respectively and thus sufficient only for crude estimations. However, it can be fairly safely assumed that an IIAII type tropical storm (that which passes directly over the island) on the average will produce about eight to ten inches of rain and will cause heavy or very heavy flood damage. liD" type storms seem to share closely the characteristics of lie" type storms but it is unlikely that such a storm would cause more than moderate damage (Table 12) . . Storms passing north of the island seemed to produce either slight amounts of precipitation (one-half to two finches) or fairly large amounts (five or six inches). Southerly hurricanes tended to be much more regular in their progression with numerous hurricanes producing variable amounts of precipitation (Table 12). The only super-hurricane (1928 in terms of precipitation) wh ich occurred during the period 1921 to 1971 passed south of St. Thomas and deposited sixteen inches of rain on the island. This extremely wet hurricane, however. barely produced the raInfall amounts that occurred during the May 1960 and October 1970 storms of non-hurricane origin. Thus in order to obtain a good definition of hurricane flooding capa- bilities it has been necessary to extend our estimation base to non- hurricane flooding occurrences. Future flood damage levels are made more readily estimable for St. Thomas but the problen'l of estimating damage will be made more difficult by the constantly increasing urbaniza- tion, population, inflation, and property values of St. Thomas. ,-- St. Thomas a("J xhecarrhquakc on 1 B~h Noyember -. i B6'5~~::' ~~~;1~~:~~k~~;~'~~=~L:; St. Thomas IS. nov. 7867,_ T rasni! i III.Tldeli ... £"; In the trail otth~ ~St:. Croix "191b; ,-' I ~~.~ ~:,;:- ,- .~ ~. ,"". , - '- ~~~ •• ~ •• ,<,~ r- \. \ , , \ , I . , - < c - PART III: CONCEPTIONS OF HURRICANES AND OF THE HURRICANE HAZARD Hurricanes of Scientist and Islander The hurricane known to the scientist is not that of the islander. In the last half century, the islands have had few tropical cyclones that were called "hurricane" locally: only two of the 19 tropical cyclones experienced since 1920 were real hurricanes to long-time island residents interviewed in 1969 (Table 13): those of 1928 (St. Croix) and 1932 (St. Thomas). And similar conclusions were drawn from the ex- tensive hazard survey in St. Thomas in 1970. Almost half of those who shared island hurricane lore identified the period 1928-1932 as the last time the Virgin Islands "had trouble with hurricanes" (Table 14). And when asked to identify the "worst year for hurricanes in the Virgin Islands ", more than half of those with some knowledge of hurricanes in the islands pinpointed the years 1916, 1928, and 1932 (Table 15). Apparently the tropical cyclones of the scientist become true hurricanes if they cause a great amount of damage to property and distress to people. These things happen in the extreme form of the hazard--when the center of a well-developed tropical cyclone (classified as A-type,or occasionally B, in the first part of this report) passes directly over or very close to a locale. I Table 13 I I Dates of Last Hurricanes to Hit the Virgin Islands, as Perceived by Residents (Jan. 1969). Precise a.nd correct identifications by year. Imprecise or incorrect id'2ntifications by dec~I(;::: Respondents SC ST ST ST SC ST (Elite), 1867 ·1916 1924 1928 1931 1932, 1933 1956 1960 19C lOs 20s 30s !lOs ~-, .. - S.C. Educated 5 1 1(+1)*1 S.C. Dec-M. 4 1 S.T. Educated (1) (2) 3 (1) (2) S.T. Dec-M. (1) (2) 4 T. Educated (2) 2(+1) (1) 1 (1 ) (1) Sub Total 4 3 13 9 2 2 1 2 0 0 2 T. Popul. Res >10 (1) (1) T. populo Res ~10 2 T. Folk (1) 2(+1) 1 1 (1) S.T. Popu1 Res >10 ( 1) 1 (+1) ~ 1 8 1 (1) (2) S.T. Popu1 Res <10 1s j* 2 1 2 3(+1) S.T. Folk 1 3 1 1 (1) Sub Total 1 3 4 2 1 14 3 1 3 6 6 Total 1 7 7 15 1 23 2 2 4 3 3 6 8 * - 1 Figures in brackets are 'hurricanes' mentioned as additions to the original answer. *2 (s.c.) indicates that the 'hurricane' was identified by a Thomian as occurring on Sto croix. *3 (s.j.) indicates that the interviewee was on St. John. Hurricanes of 1867, 1916, and 1924 affected both st. Thomas and st. Croix. 0 1 sc* 1 1 3 3 [3_0s 60s 1 (1) sc*2 (l)sc* 2 1 (1) , 1 0 2 2 3 Those of 1928 and 1956 affected st. Croix~ while those of 1931, 1932, 1933, and 1960 affected st. Thomas. Hurricanes that affect St. Thomas generally affect Torto1a and St. John 0 Three hurricanes affected the Islands in 1916 and 2 in 1924. DNK-did not know NoHs-No hurricanes Res-resident T-Torto1a S.C.-st. Croix S.T.-St. Thomas popu1.-Popu1ace DJiK yoT: .. 5 1 1 .. 5 ~: 5 ., "- ·-1 Table 14 When Was The Last Year There Was Trouble with Hurricanes? (1970, st. Thomas) Those with 1916 18 24 26 27 28 29 30 32 34 35 37 38 55 56 58 60 64 66 67 68 69 30 1s 401S 50 1s CO' :.: hurricane experience (48) 1 6 13 1 1 1 4 3 2 5 2 1 ~ J -:i Those without hurricane experience (41) 1 1 1 1 4 2 2 4 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 Total 89 1 1 1 1 1 10 2 2 17 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 2 2 2 5 2 1 ~ Table 15 When Was The Worst Year For Hurricanes? (1970, st. Thomas) 1778 1915 1916 1918 1920 24 26 28 29 30 32 35 50 52 53 54 56 58 60 65 66 DNK NA Experience (48) 1 17~ 2 1 ~ 6 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 7 Without Experience (41) 1 5 2 2 1 2~ 2 1 1~ 1 1 1 1 17 2 Total 1 1 22~ 4 1 2~ 1 8~ 3 1 4~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 1 1 24 2 XcP. ., .... --~-- - - 49 - Sharers of Island Hurricane Lore: The Nature of Island Hurricanes The true hurricane is 'recalled' in the islands by many who did not experience it. The big hurricane, in effect, becomes part of island lore transmitted eventually to inexperienced newcomers. But this transmis- sion process takes time, and the information transmitted is rarely precise (something that becomes immediately obvious in tables 14 and 15). As might be expected in an island with so many recent immigrants, a large proportion of them do not as yet share island lore. In fact the island population can be divided into four groups based on knowledge of hurricane lore. One group, constituting a little less than one-third of the population, know practically nothing of the history of hurricanes in the Virgin Islands. Another well"'informed third of the population recognizes three types of hurricanes. They realize that the 1916 hurricane was very severe (and the worst this century). This group also recognizes hurricanes of moderate severity--those of 1928 and 1932 (called troublesome); as well as a third set of basically inconsequential tropical storms, not called 'hurricanes': 41 those of the 'sixtie s that l1grazed" these lands. These 3 types are essentially the A, B. and C-type hurricanes recognized in the first part of the study. 41Four persons, residents for more than 45 years on the three major islands were asked in 1969: when was the last hurricane on their respective islands?: On St. Thomas all four answered 1932; on St. Croix 3 vf 4 answered 1928; and on Torto1a 3 of 4 answered 1924. The fourth respondents on both Torto1a and St. Croix identified 1933. To these 12 people there had been no .hurricanes since 1933. . .." . \... '.' The remaining one-third of the population is in various stages of acquiring this hurricane lore. Half of this group differentiate two types of hurricanes. They think of the B-type hurricanes of 1928 and 1932 as the lworst' eAlJerienced on the islands, and of the C-type hurri- canes of the' sixties as "troublesome. 11 For the remainder of the group (one- sixth of the population) there is only one type of hurricane on St. "Thomas: the C-type hurricanes of the 'sixties' which are considered to be the worst experienced in the islands. Interestingly the seven hurricanes and tropical storms of the period 1934 - 1954 are erased from memory in St. Thomas (Tables 14 and 15). To the experienced, these storms were inconsequential--like those of the 'sixties. Long-term residents experience great difficulty in identifying one hurricane from this 20-year period. Thus to those in the process of acquiring island hurricane lore, these "lesser" storms are effectively outside living and recounted memory. And for the majority of the island's many recent immigrants these hurricanes are outside their period of experience in the Virgin Islands. It is easy to see why the island population consistently underestimates the frequency of visitation of tropical cyclones. Experience of the Damaging Hurricane What is perhaps remarkable is that so "much information has been imparted to recent arrivals and to many of the younger islanders, to the point where half of the population is aware of either a two- or three- fold differentiation of hurricanes in the islands. For as far as could be established in 1969, less than 5 percent of the population had suffered through the last big hurricane of 1910, and less than one in ten of the present population experienced the moderately severe hurricanes of 1928 and 1932. There are, of course, many immigrants who have experienced hurricanes elsewhere. And in 1970 an attempt was made to estimate the portions of heads of households who had experienced hurricanes somewhere (Table 14). Approximately half of the respondents felt that they had experienced hurricanes. But among many of these the hurricane experience was of incon- sequential tropical storms at best. It was concluded that 37 out of 93 had experienced damaging hurricanes (C-type hurricanes or worse). And some 'of these had experienced as many as 5 hurricanes. Based on another question concerning potential damage that hurricanes could effect on a household, it was inferred that one-quarter of the respondents had experienced at least moderately severe (B-type) hurricanes, and that at least one-tenth of the heads of household had experienced severe (A-type) hurricanes. This was confirmed obliquely in answers to another question concerning major damages effected by hurricanes in the experience of respondents. Most people thought of hurricanes as producing less than wholesale destruction, and they associated with the hurricane one type of damage only (household usually). One in ten mentioned three or four types of damage, and we infer from this that these persons at least believe that hurricanes in the Virgin Islands could bring wholesale destruction to home, people, community, and work (Table 16). There are, of course, some people who have experienced severe hurricanes in Florida, Santa Domingo, and Puerto Rico and typhoons in the Pacific, who feel that similarly severe hurricanes will not occur in the Virgin Islands. And there are others who have experienced severe and moderately severe hurricanes in the Virgin Islands who believe that such storms will never strike again (i. e. they assume that the storm of 1916 was a 500-year or 1, OOO-year hurricane). TABLE 16 Types of Damage j£ a Hurricane Strikes St. Thomas (1970, St. Thomas) Number of Damage d Elements Elements Workplace House Community People Total Identified One 2 25 5 3 35 Two 2 3 6 , 1 12 Three 2 2 a 2 6 Four 2 2 2 2 8 Total 8 32 13 8 61 In sum a sizeable proportion (as much as one-third) of the population of the Virgin Islands know practically nothing about past experience with hurricanes in the Virgin Islands, and has no experience with hurricanes in general. Another one-third which is relatively \vell iilformed of ei-~hcr hurricane experience in the V. 1. or elsewhere inherits, from those with extensive experience, the tendency to underestima te the frequency of past hurricanes. Taken in this light it is easy to explain some rather remarkable answers to a question posed in 1970; liDo the people of the Virgin Islands have trouble with hurricanes? 11 Almost half of the responsdents felt that the islands did not have 'trouble' with hurricanes and another large group (20 percent) said they were not sure (Table 17). TABLE 17 Do the People of the Virgin Islands have trouble with Huuricanes? (1970, St. Thomas) Responses Persons: Don't Know Yes No Doubtful Total Numbers 11 29 43 9 92 Percentages 11.9 31.5 46.7 9.7 100 ; , ~ .L The term 'trouble' was used later in the questionnaire and apparently meant different things to different people. Some with hurricane experience know that one troublesome hurricane (defined as severe) has occurred this century, and were tempted to conclude that the islands are essen- tially untroubled by such hurricanes. Others not aware of the severe hurricanes of 1916 and 1928-32, yet aware of the lesser storms of the last 10-15 years, take these as the standard "hurricanes" and conclude that these (and future storms) were not troublesome. Thus many use false standards in judging the 'hurricanes' likely to hit the islands. Given varying personal definitions of hurricanes and the general tendency to forget many less memorable storms, it is difficult to establish popular estimations of long-term trends of hurricane frequency. Clearly, however, the probability of hurricane occurrence in the Virgin Islands is grossly underestimated by most islanders, simply because the definition of "hurricane" for a majority of them is stricter than that adopted by the scientific community. Furthermore, there is an optimistic streak in most people when faced with predicting the likelihood of natural disaster likely to affect the,m, 42 as well as the tendency in experiential chronologies to eliminate less memorable disasters from the record and , to calculate the incidence of future catstrophe based on memorable past 42Ian Burton, R. W. Kates, and R. Snead, The Human Ecology of Coastal Flood Hazard in Megalopolis, Univ. of Chicago, Dept. of Geography Research Paper No. 115, 1969, pp. 154-160. r- ! 43 events. - ~15 - Even among long-term island residents and among those with ex- tensive hurricane experience there is a tendency to underestimate the frequency of the tropical cyclones that have affected the islands. And this tendency is more marked among recent migrants and among the inexperienced. This error in estimation is being further compounded by many, for when asked to project these widespread underestimations of tropical cyclone frequency into the future ten of 27 people classed as folk and populace 44 felt that the chance of the islands' receiving a hurricane in the near future was less than in the past, and three of these felt there would be no more hurricanes on the islands (surprisingly one had experienced a hurricane in 1932). The same proportion of the folk and populace thought the chance of receiving a hurricane in the near future to be greater than in the .past, and seven of 27 thought the chance tJ be unchanged. Among the elite the predictions were quite different. None of the elite interviewed in 1969 felt that the chance of getting a hurricane in the near future was less than in the past, and most of the decision-making elite thought the chance was greater (Table Un. 43T • F. Saarinen, Perception of the. Drought Hazard of the Great Plains, Univ. of Chicago, Dept. of Geography, Research Paper No. 106, 1966, pp. 61-76. '. What was clear in 1969 (in terms of the question posed) was that the frequency of hurricanes (already underestirm. ted) was seen to be changing by a large proportion of elite, populace, and folk. What were the reasons for these changes in the estirra ted future frequency of hurricanes com- pared to the past? In many cases 'optimistic' beliefs have grown as a result of a long hurricane-free period and a simple projection of this into the future. 'Pessimistic' beliefs are more common among the well educated who know that the last 40 years have been unrepresentative. Others of the optimists felt the absence of hurricanes to be a result of a local C~ribbean climatic change: the shift of the path or paths of hurricanes relative to the small Virgin Islands group. Most of these people felt that the chances of receiving hurricanes in the near future was either unchanged or less than in the past. - 57 - TABLE 18 Predictions of the Chance of Receiving a Hurricane in the Near Future Relative to the Past - Numbers of Persons by Groups (l969) Chance of Hurricane in the Near Future Relative to the Past: Group Greater Unchanged Less Sample Educated Elite 4 5 0 9 Decision - Making Elite 6 1 0 7 Populace (resident ),10 years) 4 5 4 13 Populace (resident (10 years) 3 2 2 7 Folk 3 0 4 7 , All Groups 20 13 10 43 Reasons for Changing Hurricane Frequencies: Changing Tracks To some there is a "hurricane belt", "chain", or "zone" in the Caribbean and according to four of five who mentioned the belt, the Virgin Islands are no longer in it. flIf they (hurricanes) veer from the natural path St. Thomas gets them. II A variant of this view is that there used to be three Caribbean hurricane tracks passing over Barbuda; Guadeloupe; and Martinique, with the middle track (Guadeloupe) over the Virgin Islands. For some reason tropical cyclones have not been on this track for about 40 years, and one long-term resident felt that this change was therefore permanent. More widespread were views that there are only two major hurri- cane tracks in the Caribbean area - one to the north and east of the Virgins, and one to the south and west - and that the Virgin Islands rarely receive more than the side-effects of the storms on these two tracks. The idea of there being two major hurricane tracks (to the north- east and to the southwest of the Virgin Islands) has also been fed by a publication widely circulated in the islands: Hurricanes and Holidays~5 45Hurricanes and Holidays--Supplication Day (July 25) Local Thanksgiving Day (Oct. 25). Mimeographed pamphlet, ESEA Title III staff. n. d., (St. Thomas,?) 26 pp. - 59 - The pamphlet paraphrases scientific iniormation in describing the nature and tracks of hurricanes in the Caribbean area, arid combines these,with selected newspaper accounts of past disasters. ' The publication mentions a Cape Verde hurricane track which is shown Pi3.ssing to the north of the Virgin Islands. Another compound track, called the "Caribbeanll, is sketched in far to the south-west, and is apparently of no consequence to the Virgin Islands. Both tracks have basis in fact {as represented}, but the manner of their graphic presentation- -two heavy black lines and arrows- -tends to suggest absolute rather than relative presence. Related beliefs are that the storms have been tending to pass either far to the north, hitting Florida ("they all go east of here, I come from St. Martin and that gets hurricanesll ; IIthey start 1000 miles east and usually shift northwest and miss St. Croix. They usually hit Florida rather than usl!) or "farther in the southl!(lthe changing wind pattern has carried them south of St. Thomas"}. These hurricanes on the southern track either "spin themselves out" before reaching the Virgins or "go over Puerto Rico's J:i:ast End." This view of the Virgin Islands' meat .." being the poison of Puerto Rico and Florida may stem from the coverage in the Island press and radio of the storms that hit these 2 places with disastrous consequences {and might have hit the islands}. Some who feel that there is a decreasing chance of hurricanes 'explained' this by pointing to either the small size of the storms or the - 60 - small size of the islands or both. In one case we were told that hurri- canes were too youthful to be damaging: "the hurricanes spawn near here and therefore they are not of high velocityl1, anCi in another case the hurricanes were dying out before reaching the Virgins and therefore not damaging: "they come to here from 500 to 600 miles south and break their force on the lower islands". These quotations are from prominent officials who have lived 10 years or less on the islands, but there were native residents who expressed similar. if less genetic ideas (Table 19). Were these people takingJor granted the widespread lore of a major shift of the two tracks along which hurricanes (with winds of more than 60 miles per hour) moved or had they forgotten both the past record of hurricanes and that the islands had been the same size when they were hit by damaging hurricanes in 1867, 1916, 1924, 1928, and 1932? The Chang!.ng Atmosphere Many people felt that the absence of hurricanes in the last 40 years was associated with large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation or pressure or temperature (Table 19). "Stronger winds recently have blown the storms away"; "the changing wind pattern has carried them south"; and there are no hurricanes "because of the tradewinds". Four of the ten in this group who felt that "atmospheric conditions and wind had prevented one (hurricane) from hitting" had earlier in the interview Group Educated Elite Decision- Making Elite Populace resident >10 years populace resident <10 years Folk Total God & Table 19 Reasons for the prolonged Absence of Hurricanes from the virgin Islands: Numbers of Persons by Groups. , Luck & Law of Small Hurricane Changes Prayers Chance Averages Size of Cycle "OFF" in Hurri- Atmospheric change & statis- Storm & cane Tracks Wind tics Islands Temp. 1 1 1 1 2 0 2 1 1 0 2 1 2 0 - 5 4 3 0 0 3 3 0 1 1 3 0 4 3 0 3 0 1 0 2 3 7 10 5 7 3 11 11 (43) individuals , (:J) ._,,3 i - I blamed atomic testing for the climatic change on the island. Three .- others blamed man for meddling with the atmosphere and thereby changing hurricane frequency through his cloud-seeding ,operations, increasing flow of air traffic, and increased use of lIel ectrical appliances ... (that) att:tacthurricanes and draw themll • "Atmospheric pressure is less. so less hurricanes and we're not likely to get one. the chances don't increase'~ one school teacher informed us. Some. like this school teacher,. convinced of a long-term climatic change thought of it as nearly permanent. But the majority of this group thought of hurricane absence as a temporary consequence of atmos- pheric changes. And in January. 1969 many saw signs that a major atmospheric change was under way, as epitomized in the colder and recently wetter winters and the increased windiness of January 1969. The floods of May 1969 following a monthly rainfall of between 15 and 25 inches apparently convinced even more people that there was a high chance of the islands' having a hurricane in 1969 or in the near future. 46 The Imminent Hurricane For everyone in 1969 who felt that the chance of an imminent hurri- cane was declining there were two who believed that the chance was greater. and Table 19 reveals that the elite and particularly the decision- 46 Communication with Robert vanEepoel, mid July, 1969. - 63 - makers form a large proportion of this pessimist group. Some ex- plained their view on the bas~s of an incipient reversal of the atmos- pheric conditions or a prospective change in the ~irection of hurricanes from the pattern of the last 40 years. But the majority of the pessimists stressed luck (and the law. of .averages), prayers, and cycles as the reasons for the recent absence of hurricanes. Hurricane Cycle s Those who believe that hurricane frequency follows a cyclical pattern feel that the "on-cycle" has either begun or is imminent. Two decision-makers on St. Croix indicated that Senator Lawaetz of St. Croix "who is a farmer, feels that there is a cycle of hurricanes and that one was due in 1968". One agreed, the other did not, adding that there were others besides Lawaetz who "think there is a 40-year cycle. " Three others among the educated elite recognized hurricane cycles. A Tortolan thought that "hurricanes go in cycles oflO or 20 years" and equated them with the wet phase in the wet and dry cycle. He felt that the Ilisland should get one soon". In St. Thomas we were told that "climatic change goes in cycles- -wet and dryas with hurricanes ". ("Since we haven't been hit the chances that we will be increase every year H). As with drought, so with hurricanes, the cycle theorists are found, almost exclusively in the elite group(s). Could it be that 'cycles' are an elite idea rarely transmitted to the folk and populace? Religion Religion and superstition are both deeply involved in beliefs about hurricanes particularly among native residents. Yet in the open-ended questionnaire of 1969 God and prayers were mentioned as being effective against hurricanes only by old natives. Non-natives simply commented on the native belief in the efficacy of prayer. The Ilpeople are very suspicious ..• (and) .veryreligious and say a prayer if the hurricane doesn't strike". This suggests, . perhaps, a strong carry-over among the older natives of the great fear of hurricanes that existed among the islanders when Earl Shaw did his field research in the Virgin Islands in the late '20s. 47 Stone (1942), paraphrasing Shaw, wrote that among Cruzians "these storms (hurricanes) ••• are regarded with such dread by the people that special prayers for deliverance are made at the beginning of the hurricane season, and a thanksgiving service is held when the period of danger is past. ,,48 The open response of the old native was epitomized in 1969 by a 78- year old native school teacher who had lived all her life on St. Thomas. She identified (quite correctly) three severe hurricanes: those of 1867; 47Earl B. Shaw, Geographic Studies on the Virgin Islands of the United States, Unpublished Ph. D. in Geography, Clark University, 1932, pp. 36-58. 48 Stone, OPe cit., p. 50 - C~ - 1932 - "the last one" and 1916 "the worst one", that Ilblew the house inll with lIvery strong winds ll • -She prays to God non July 25th in the churches to spare them from hurricanes ll , and "on October 25thll, she prays llthanking God they have been spared ... Hurricanes havenlt hit the island (since 1932) because of luck and God. II An old native policeman used similar words: "hurricanes ... haven't hit because we pray that they won't hit'l. We were told on two s~parate occasions on St. Thomas in 1969 that "A catholic priest said that if a church was built facing east on the hill- side, the island would be spared from hurricanes. The church was built shortly after the 1932 hurricane. There has not been a hurricane for 30 years". And we were told on both St. Croix and St. Thomas that the . Governor (Paiewonsky) had recently stated, following:a hurricane scare, that lIgood people had been spared by Godll. While the old natives may be frank about their belief in the efficacy of God and prayer, a large proportion of the islanders place more faith in prayer than they profess openly. For while only 2 in 89 volunteered "prayer" as a "perceived adjustment ll to the hurricane hazard in the 1970 questionnaire, 62 of the 69 who responded knew of friends and neighbors who prayed when hurricanes were forecast and imminent. Fifty- six of 62 viewed prayer as a 'good' rather than a 'bad' response to the hurri- C6 cane danger (27 answered neither negatively nor positively). and a large number of people mentioned going to the church (or fort) as another good response to the hurricane danger (Table 24). 49, However, not even the older islanders believe that divine absolution from hurricanes will go on indefinitely; on the contrary most implied in 1969 that a hurricane was imminent (Table 18): 1'God is on our side (but) we're in for a big one soon though, II a 55-year old native school teacher told us. Superstition No one was willing to admit belief in magic and superstition in relation to hurricanes but many assured us such beliefs exist. while others were at pains to deny their own belief in superstition when asked about hurricanes. According to a school principal, lIoften the kids would talk of spirits--jumbies--that would tell (that) it - a hurricane - was comingll • This presumably reflects adult talk at home. Luck and the Lore of Averages Belief that an increase in hurricane frequency is imminent is more commonly as sociated with the view that the 1I1uck", IIstatistics ", and IIsheer chance", that have kept hurricanes away for the last forty years, cannot go on forever. One optimist (a continental hotel owner) felt that , good luck would continue indefinitely and two thought the chance of a 490n the strength of the religious beliefs mentioned in 1969 we in- cluded a special question in the 1970 survey, and the answers to this question turned out to be the most effective correlate with a great number of variables and perhaps the best predicter of behavior before and during hurricanes. hurricane striking to be unchanged, but for others the lore (or law) of averages is no·w operating ag.ainst the Virgins. "The law of averages determines what areas will be hit and ,vhat won't be, (the hurricane is) JOu et '" p11eno·"l.r-non Of n0tu~(,"I! (T1~ -In;' Y' '~'OIn0"Y' \ ~ "l.d "tJ1 D 1aH~ of ........... 0.. ,~.! .. L ,,-,j,. J,.l. .L (..... ..L \, __ ,. . .J,...:U 1 ":"'(.'.1 v'V . (I.L1J, ,-,,-i \..- 1...- _ • VV averages sa,Ys there will be one (hurricane) soonll, (male Tortolan). "We can attribute it (the absence of hurricanes) to luck and statistics", said a Thomian member of the educated elite, "and since we haven't been hit, the chances that we will be increase every year. II Elsewhere, on two different occasions we were told that statistics had recently been foiled - "statistics said we were to get one (hurricane) this year (1968)" and "the odds were against us last year". Those who combine the notion that the islands have been "just lucky" in missing hurricanes with the belief that a hurricane is imminent, are predominantly long-term, mainly native, residents on each island during this century, i. e., one every twenty-five years. 50 Their view is epitomized, perhaps, by the statement of an articulate native decision- maker who had spent all his 50 years on the Virgin Islands and ex- perienced the 1928 hurricane on St. Croix: "Hurricanes come at least twice in a lifetime .•• (and so) ••• I feel one is overdue". In fact island leaders seem to be convinced of the imminence of a major hurricane. In a behavioral context this pessimistic view shared by the decision-makers and many long-term (native) residents will have 50 J.S. Beard, The Natural Vegetation of .the .Windward and Leeward Islands, Oxf ord: Clarendon Press, 1949, p. 175. a salutary effect on hurricane preparedness in the immediate future or until a hurricane hits (with the one qualification that preparedness be ex- tended beyond the official limits of the hurricane season). But, by the same token. C1C8 Cl hurricane has hit, those JJpessimistsll '.'.'ho believe in the law of averages and cycles may feel that the likelihood of another hurricane hitting the islands in the same year or immediately afterwards is negligible. Both the theory of probability and the recorded hurricane experience of the islands reveals the falsity of this response. Probability theory suggests that there is, in fact, no greater chance of a hurricane next year than in any other year in the past or future and therefore that people should be well prepared every year. For this reason and others, a majority of the educated elite (1969) held the view of an unchanged probability of a visitation by a hurricane. This view was also found among a sizeable number of the populace who had lived on the islands more than 10 years (1969). Interestingly (yet in a small sample) it was not found among the folk who believed either that there was less chance of hurricanes in the future because the atmosphere and hurricane tracks had changed markedly or that there was more chance of hurricanes because the islands had too long defied the "law of averages. II - i Four Stories and the Pattern of Hurricane Occurrence The Hazard-Group questionnaire in 1970 asked a direct question on patterns of hurricane frequency. After a hurricane four men told different stories ubout <' hurric2ne comin7 2,rC":':n, canes come in clusters (suggesting that another hurricane would come soon); the second stressed the randomness of hurricanes (suggesting that hurricanes would come again "in any year"); the third stressed the cyclic nature of hurricanes (suggesting that there was a regular time for hurri- canes and "that time must pass before it comes again"); the fourth thought that hurricanes would not come again (Table 20). Only six of 93 respondents thought the pattern of hurricane occurrence to be cyclical in the long-term (third story), while another four of 93 felt that a clustering tendency--a form of cyclical pattern--described hurri- cane frequency. This goes some way to confirm our finding of 1969 that 'cycle! theorists are a small (probably elite) group and that cycle theory is rarely found among the populace, for only 11 percent saw a recognizable pattern in hurricane occurrence, and half of these (5 of 10) respondents were young (18-30 years) .. The vast majority of Thomians (4 out of 5 persons) believed that hurricanes "would come again, but did not know when, because hurricanes can happen in any year lJ (second story). The remaining six of 93 persons either felt that hurricanes would not come again (fourth story) or could not identify with any of the four stories as Young (18-30 yrs) (22) Middle Aged (30-50 yrs) Old (50-90 yrs) (31) Total (93) Number of People (Respondents) Percentages Table 20 Percentage proportions of Persons' Answers to the Story Question First Story Second Story Third story Fourth Story Don't Know Total (Clustering) (Random Series) (Cyclic.al) (No More) 9.0 72.7 13.6 4.5 0.0 100.0 (40) 2.5 85.0 s:o 2.5 5.0 100.0 3.2 87.0 3.2 0.0 6.4 100.0 4.3 82.7 6.4 2.1 4.3 100.0 Table 21 _1 Hurricane Expectancy (Will a Hurricane Come Again in Your Lifetime?) Don't Know Yes No Total 36 51 6 93 38.7 54.8 6.5 100.0 Those Who Answered Yes (54.8) Don't Know Can't Say When A Few Years Soon Many Years No 38.7 29 10 15 1- 6 - 71 - presented. Unfortunately missing was a story suggesting that the longer the time since the hurricane the greater the chance of occurrence of a second (the law of averages). People who believed this were clearly included under the rubric of the second story. Two similar yet distinctive view- points on hurricane incidence were subsumed in the responses of the great majority who opted for the second story. But it was not possible from the story-queption (1970) to check the inference to be drawn from Table 18 (1969) that among the populace respondents divided equally over the two views (i. e .• seven of 20 thought the chance to be unchanged, and seven of 20 thought the chance to be greater). This roughly equal divi- sion was. however. confirmed by the answers to another question: Do you think the hurricane will come again in your lifetime? Of the 51 respondents who said 'yes' (Table 21). 46 percent thought the hurricane would come "soon" or "in a few years", (believers in the law of averages), while 52 percent "couldn't say" when the hurricane would come (believers in random series). The Beneficent Hurricane We have assumed to this point that respondents felt that hurricanes / were essentially destructiv6!. Hov.e ver, two long-time natives pointed out that hurricanes brought welcome rain to the islands, and one of these men, from the educated elite group, saw hur.ricanes as more .?eneficial than detrimental to the islands in that they brought much needed rain - 72 - that could end a drought. (It was implied in fact that the passage of a hurricane was one of the few ways that a drought such as the one recently experienced, could be broken. )51 111 think men are seeding the hurri- canes and breaking them up. They are robbing us of moisture from them". This conception of the beneficent hurricane, is surprising, at first glance. But it must be remembered (1) that the cautious scholar R. B. Stone wrote in 1942 "that it is not minimizing the danger from these storms to say that they rarely strike with great severity", and (2) that many if not a majority of the hurricanes that have come wi thin 100 miles of the islands in the last 100 years have brought copious rains, frequently to parched agricultural lands, usually at a time when soil moisture storage levels were very low. Furthermore our Cruzian informant is not old enough to have experienced the last major hurr.ican of 1928 on St. Croix. Thus there is no need to make any apology for this minority view, for there is a strong possibility that the 48 known hurricanes that have passed over or close to these dry islands in the last 100 years may, on balance, have been more beneficial than detrimental. The majority were C and D , 5lTo my knowledge seeding operations have been under way for the last 3 years and possibly more on St. Croix. The drought- -the worst drought in V. I. history--has been synchronous with these operations and a hurricane is long overdue according to this man and many others. It is an easy step to relate the three, particularly if one believes that hurricanes are bene- ficent, in that they can break protracted dry spells. - 73 - type storms passing at more than 50 miles distance of Bn storms passing north. These storms have brought rain usually without severe flooding, and without tidal surge. And certainly in recen~ decades with better warning systems, stricter building codes, more protection for people and animals, the decline of crop agriculture and the great need for full cisterns and catchments for a growing population, all but the most serious hurricanes might well be a boon in this special situation where drought . t" 11 d . 52 IS prac lca. y en emlC. 52See "Tropical Storms that are Beneficial", in Ivan R. Tannehill, Hurricanes, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1950, pp. 130-131. Fassig, as paraphrased by Tannehill "found that 60 percent of the storms that affected Puerto Rico from 1899 to 1928, inclusive, were beneficial. " - 74- PART IV: ADMUSTMENTS TO THE HURRICANE HAZARD Awareness of the Hurricane Season: Official and Unofficial "June too soon, July stand by. August come if it must, September remember, October all over. II Virgin Island saying-- School teacher, St. Thomas, January, 1969. There is an official hurricane season in the Virgin Islands. It runs from Supplication Day (July 25th) - - a holiday - - to Thanksgiving Day (October 25th). More than 75 percent of the people interviewed (1969) included this period in their hurricane season. Nine people equated the hurricane season with the official season - - giving the exact dates of the latter. Not surprisingly four out of the five decision-makers and four of the long-term residents in the populace mentioned these exact dates (Table 22). If nothing else, there is a gre at deal of consistency in the islanders' views about the hurricane season. This is not surprising when it is noted that all the 48 hurricanes ex- perienced in the American islands since 1867 have occurred in July, August, September and October, with by far the majority passing in August and September (Table 1). The islanders assume this record in their responses. More than 90 percent of the people consider September I as a hurricane month, and more than 80 percent include August, the last week in July and the first three weeks in October -- the official hurri- cane season (Table 22). No hurricanes have occurred in 1738 and none i i Group I May June Educated Elite (4 ) 0 1 Decision- Making Elite (5) 0 0 Populace, resident more than 10 years (11) I 1 1 populace, resident less than 10 years (6 ) 1 1 Folk (3) 1 1 Total (29) I 3 4 -] Table 22 Periods in which Hurricanes can be expected in the u.s. Virgin Islands (29 interviews) July July 25-31 Aug. Sept. Oct. 1-25 3 (3 ) 4 2 (2) 1 5 5 5 5 3 7 7 11 9 4 5 6 6 6 2 2 3 3 3 13 22 25 27 25 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 2 a 0 0 -,~ 1 0 0 0 :.n 5 2 1 1 5 2 0 0 3 0 a 0 16 4 1 1 - 7 G - are expected, except perhaps by the few who included May, June and November in the hurricane_ season, and by the four people (out of twenty-nine) who warned us that hurricanes can occur in any month. 53 Yet there is one danger in too ready an acceptance by officials and others of these precise dates for the beginning and end of the hurricane season; the acceptance of the idea that hurricanes only occur between these dates and the consequent danger that preparedness would be re- stricted to that period. This danger is more real when it is recalled that it is the decision-makers and long-time residents who think of a rigidly-defined hurricane season. That preparedness over a longer season in the Virgin Islands is perhaps more imperative than on the coasts of the continental United States is obvious, for the northeast Caribbean is closer to the major hurricane source area, and it is possible that tropical cyclones can be formed in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands and burst upon them without much warning even in the 530ne person called a recent gale in January in St. Croix a "hurri- cane", and another mentioned a hurricane that affected Anegada, British Virgin Islands, on Christmas Day. John P. Knox noted that "Sir Ro H. Schomburgk has found recorded from the year 1494 to 1846, or in a period of 352 years, 127 hurricanes and severe gales, which committed more or less injury in the West Indies. Of this number occurred in March, 1; June, 4; July, 11; August, 40; September, 28; December, 2. Of 13 no date or month recorded. " (Historical Account of St. Thomas, West Indies, New York: Charles Scribner, 1852). Ivan R. Tannehill (op. cit., p. 113) has published the following figures of the number of tropical storms in each month, 1887 to 1944, and the number of known hurricane intensity are given in brackets (hurricanes of the Gulf, Caribbean and North Atlantic): May 5 (0); June 25 (10); July 30 (16); August 87 (59); September 134 (76); October 107 (40); November 27 (7); December 2 (0); Total 416 (208). .- ~ - '{ - days of the U. S. Weather Bureau warning system.54 Out of the 48 tropical cyclones that have affected St. Thomas and St. Croix since 1866, two (both severe) have occurred outside the offi- cial hurricane season--on July 14, 1916 and Oct-ober 29, 1867, presum- ably after the establishment of the period July 25 to October 25 as the official hurricane season. The records of hurricanes in the Caribbean as a whole show that at least one in every 10 hurricanes hit the area out- °d thO ° d 55 Sl e IS perlO. Another worrying point is that six hurricanes have occurred in the last week of July since 1737, which suggests that the official hurricane season (and hurricane preparedness) might with great safety be brought forward to mid July or earlier, and to include late October in which the worst hurricane ever measured (l867)moved over St. Thomas. Signs of the Imminent Hurricane Before the U. S. Weather Bureau hurricane warning system was well developed, the islanders relied on many signs to forewarn them of hurri- canes and there are still many who rely on natural' signs'. 56 Informants 54Tannehill, Ope cit., pp. 55-69, and particularly p. 57. 55Ibl od. , 113 p. • 56Knox, Ope cit., pp. 214-216. - '72 - told us in 1969 that: "Farmers could tell by a heavy crop of avocado pears. This would mean no hurricane. II Another told us that "Birds, certain kinds, indicate the p~sence of hurricanes. II A recurrent theme was the brightness and calmness before the hurr~cane: "A completely clear and bright ski' (St. Croix), a marked "lightening" of the sky (St. Thomas), "a calmness the day or two before II (Tortola). There are obviously many other harbingers of the hurricane. "Old timers would notice it by the yellow color of the sky" a 55-year old native told us, and . an agricultural expert told us that If I look for very high rain clouds (and) the roll and roaring of the tides." A Tortolan agriculturalist still looks for "tide rises lf and a native Thomian has a feeling" when a hurricane is due and finds 3 indications: the "birds move inland, sea gets calm and winds shift " This line of questioning was pursued in 1970. Respondents were asked: Ilare there any signs or ways of knowing when a hurricane will come again? II Unfortunately the last word troubled some, who answered the question literally, concluding that the question referred to long-term patterns and prediction. Many of those who answered "no" were of this type (Table 23). Others apparently answered the intended question: ''what signs, if any, warn you of an imminent hurricane? II Fifty-five respondents were aware of such warnings, and 51 specified the warning signs. No Don't Signs Know 29 9 - 79 - TABLE 23 The Existence of Signs Predictive of Hurricanes Signs Not Specified 4 Human Sig[ls Idertified '1\fatura. Human & Phenomena Phenomena Natural Phenomena 25 21 5 49% 41.1% 9.8% 51 100% Most of the JJhuman phenomena" identified referred to agencies: the Weather Bureau, and the Civil Defense, etc. Other replies of this type included man-made instruments and institutions: the radio, ithe baro- meter, "the red flag up", the hurricane season, etc. Surprisingly only half of the respondents mentioned "these signs or warnings exclusively; ten percent use both human and natural phenomena, and a remarkable 2 in 5 say they use natural phenomena exclusively, e. g. "ring around the moon", "the roosters stop crowing", "birds flyaway", in addition to the signs mentioned in 1969. Obviously there are many who have never paid much attention to Weather Bureau warnings, and others who distrust the Weather Bureau57 57 A tornado st~dy made by Duane D. Baumann and John H. Sims in illinois and Alabama found a remarkable difference in the reliance on the U. S. Weather Bureau in the two states. There was heavy reliance on natural phenomena and a relative distrust of the Weather Bureau in Ala- bama (unpublished paper, mimeographed, Analysis ot-the" Tornado Hazard Data). o (J .- (and the Civil Defense), perhaps because of the IIfalse alarms" of hurri- canes that have, not affected the islands in any way. "The Weather Bureau many times thought we'd get it, but we fooled them", a Thomian told us half-seriously. til rely on atmospheric signs when a hurricane is going to strike regardless of the Weather Bureau", said another in St. Croix (1969). It is clear that for some the U. S. Weather Bureau and meteorologist at. San Juan are replacing the "jumbies" as prophets and bad men of the hurricane. There is, of course, some danger in being totally reliant on one source of hurricane information - -the U. S. Weather Bureau, and some value remains in watching for the "natural" folk signs of hurricanes as a secondary warning system. In certain circumstances, radios may be unavailable or out of commission, and it is still possible for youthful tropical cyclones to develop to the southeast and south of the Virgin Islands and burst on the islands before warnings could be widely trans- mitted from San Juan. There is anotl\er quite different potential danger associated with the U. S. Weather Bureau warning system and pUblicity of the Chief of Civil Defense- -that a new series of hurricane beliefs, true and false, may I develop as a result of the apparent excess of hurricane information now being provided. There is already a great deal of evidence that such reactions have set in. A little knowledge, where nothing but (folk) lore - 1~! - existed before, may be a dangerous thing. For instance, some who have lived on the islands for 40 years or more belive that hurricane frequency in the Caribbean has increased of late (whereas this apparent increase is simply the result of the better and farther-ranging information on hurri- canes provided in the last 20 years by the U. S. W. B.). These persons also know from personal experience that the Virgin Islands have had no hurricanes since 1932. From the comparison of these 2 'facts' they draw support fot the notion that the Virgin Islands can no longer be in the hurri- cane belt, for they have been made aware of a large number of hurricanes that have no more than "grazed" the outer islands. Perceived and Actual Adjustments to the Hurricane Hazard Even the best of questionnaires, processed subsequently with the most advanced techniques leave many questions unanswered and remarkable gaps in our knowledge. In the Virgin Islands in 1970 we were testing the standard questionnaire to be used in cross-cultural studies of all types of hazards by the 1. G. U. Commission on Man and Environment and, as a consequence, many of the sections used in the trials were later discarded and other sections ~ere substantially modified while we were in the pro- cess of collecting data. Furthermore the processing of the data by the Institute of Behavioral Sciences, University of 'Colorado Graduate School Computing Center went through different stages, and, as might be ex- pected of an experimental phase in the questionnairing procedure, the .- 32 - data were sometimes processed in a sub-optimal hshion. Most of the problems noted above affected the all-important section of the questionnaire (1970) devoted to perceived and actual adjustments to the hurricane hazard. Consequently what follows is a summary of our findings that is at times simply a presentation of raw data. To the question: I1When a hurricane comes, what do other people (friends and neighbors) do? 11 respondents were encouraged to volunteer responses (unprompted). The replies are indicated in Table 24. Follow- up questions mentioned six adjustments to hurricanes identified in the trial-run of the questionnaire and respondents were asked if "other people" made specified adjustments and whether these were considered "good or bad". (Table 24). These "perceived adjustments" made by others were then compared to the "actual adjustmentsll of the respondent: lIdo you do any of these things? II Analysis of the perceived adjustments to the hurricane hazard proved far from simple, and a number of the writer's hypotheses were directly controverted. A surprisingly weak positive relationship (significant only at the 11% level) was shown between the number of perceived adjustments to hurricanes identified by respondents and the number of actual adjust- mentsmade by each. And the number of perceived adjustments was not found to be related in any way either to 1) expectations of hurricane fre- quency in the future, or to 2) estimations of hurricane frequencies in the Virgin Islands in the past, or to 3) judgements as to whether the Virgin Islands had Htrouble" with hurricanes. ) This surprising lack of relation- ship between perceptions of adjustments and perceptions of past and future incidence and character of Virgin Islands hurricanes was com- pounded by even more surprising negative correlations. Our study found that the higher the levels of literacy, the higher the income levels, 58 and the higher the hurricane damage levels experienced by respondents in previous hurricanes, the fewer the number of adjustments volunteered by respondents. These relationships were significant at the .15, • 015, and • 01 levels of significance respectively. Furthermore and perhaps con- sistent with the last findings, no relationship was recognized between the number of adjustments identified and the number of hurricanes actually experienced (per year of age). Owners did tend to recognize more potential adjustments than did tenants, and the same was true of the long-time residents as compared to recent arrivals. But in both cases the relationships were quite weak (at the 17% level of sig~ificance). Whereas interpretation of the number of perceived adjustments to hurricanes proved difficult, that pertaining to actual adjustments was relatively straightforward. As might have been 58 The strong positive relationship between income and literacy was significant at better than the • 001 level of significance. i TABLE 24 . . , . . . . . . . . . . , . , . .' ' . . . .. ' . . ~ . , . . . , . Array of responses--what do your friends and neighbors do? ...... , ... Responses when asked: Perception of Value of Adjustments .... ,Mentioned Yes No. NA Good Bad No Answer .... (. Cut Trees 3 30 41 14 34 20 35 Leave 8 37 37 7 31 34 24 Go to Church, Fort 17 60 8 4 60 10 17 Get Food, Water 31 Other Provisions 15 Prepare Boat 3 Other' ... .. '14····'····· ...... . , .. / . , ." . . . .. ' . , ...... , . , . Total 152 250 - ~,:::> - expected strong positive relationships existed (significant at the. 001 level) between the number of adjustments actually made and 1) the number of hurricanes experienced (per 100 years of age) by respondents and 2) the housing (tenant or owner) status of respondents. O\vners and those with extensive hurricane experience made (or stated that they made) far ,- more (and different types of) adjustments than renters and those with little former experience with hurricanes. Estimations of past hurricane frequencies, and the number of years lived in the Virgin Islands were not positively related to the number of actual adjustments . . . , The Adjustments Made in the Virgin Islands (1970) Most people were aware of a range of adjustments made by others (neighbors and friends). These ranged from evacuation, preparation, and protection to relatively passive prayer. Protection by barring the house -' ! is the most common response of neighbors and friends. Only one person of those interviewed was unaware of persons who failed to bar houses. The majority of respondents saw purpose to this--but there were some (9 percent) who felt that the battening of doors and windows was dangerous. The flow of wind through the house afforded better protection than barring, they felt. .. .... Few people (4 percent) mentioned the cutting of trees close to the house, in our introductory (open-ended) discussion. But it became clear that tr.ee-cutting before the onset of the hurricane was common in St. - 2G - Thomas: approximately 42 percent of the people were aware of this practice. The majority of islanders were, however, unaware of the practice, and this would account in large mea~ure for the many who had "no answer" about the value of this response when asked whether tree- cutting was good (Table 24); A majority of those who had thought about it felt that cutting of trees was valuable. Others were ambivalent (as in East Pakistan). 59 Trees provided protection against the wind (parti- cularly in moderately severe hurricanes) but there was also the danger of, trees or large branches falling on and against the houses. Further- more, in the Virgin Islands many of the trees near houses are coconut trees with numerous compact projectiles. On the whole in the Virgin Islands it was felt to be beneficial to cut trees before a major hurricane although there were many who saw this as more dangerous than effective, and a very large proportion who were unaware of the tree-cutting as a protective measure or of the debate concerning its effectiveness. Preparation for a hurricane is also common--food, canned goods, and water are laid in by many although by fewer than might have been expected (31 of 89), and a sizeable proportion of islanders know of friends 59M• Aminul Islam, Human Adjustment to Cyclone Hazards: A Case Study of Char Jabbar, Natural Hazard Research, Working Paper No. 18, 1971, p. 13. who get in lIother provisions 11_ - candles, matches, oil, gasoline, etc. (17 of 89). Unfortunately procedural problems in the questionnaire curbed further pursuit of. information on 'preparation', although it did appear that 3 of the 89 at least prepared their sailboats for the storm. Evacuation from home or office building etc. is a widespread response and takes two forms on the island - -one, movement to large, ostensibly strong buildings, notably the fort and churches--is viewed generally with approval by the majority of the island's inhabitants; approximately 10 percent of the island's inhabitants were unaware of at least one friend or neighbor who availed him-. or herself of this opportunity. One in eight thought this response was bad. The other form of evacuation--leaving St. Thomas--is an option open to a smaller proportion of the population. Surprisingly, half of the respondents were aware of this form of evacuation. An owner of a large hotel complex on St. Thomas told :me that if a hurricane was near, he took the opportunity to visit his family and friends on the mainland: "after all it is the off-season and the hotels empty with the first threat of hurri- cane." This adjustment, while obviously effective, is nevertheless resented {and thought to be selfish)-by at least half the islanders. Those , who leave in this way are thought to be fair-weather friends of St. Thomas, letting those who stay face the storm and the aftermath of destruction. - 88 - Those who find this response 'good' clearly see it from the view- point of the individual concerned. Those who find the response 'bad' base their judgement on the feeling for loyalty to place and upon the need for the rallying together of the island, community in the storm's wake. Few mentioned 'prayer' as an adjustment in the open-ended question""' ing, yet when asked directly most respondents indicated a knowledge of friends and neighbors who prayed before the onset of a hurricane. Less than 10 percent of the respondents were unaware of this' adjustment'. Belief in the effectiveness of prayer was widespread, although there were many who felt simply that pri;tyer "wouldn't hurt". The few who thought prayer to be 'bad' did not specify why. Remarkable, yet highly consistent with the findings on the awareness of the incidence and character of the potential hurricane hazard, was the high proportion of respondents who were aware of friends and neighbors who did "nothing" when a hurricane was forecast or imminent. Of those who responded almost 60 percent knew of people who did nothing. This failure to take any precautions before the onset of a hurricane was deplored by practically all our respondents. Religion, Prayer, and Hurricane Hazard Adjustment Encouraged by the Hazard Group to add one question to the standard questionnaire being tested, we followed tantalizing leads from the 1969 study, and attempted to relate reli'gi()us behavior and hurricane hazard (' ", Ut,' perception. The question inserted was: What did you do last Supplica- tion Day--the official and traditional beginning (July25) of the hurricane season in the -virgin Islands? Three responses,' along a continuum, were common: llgo to church", "prai\ and II do nothing". We found that the more aware people were that the Virgin Islands had 'trouble' with hurricanes (question 18 and Table 18), the greater was the chance of their going to church and praying (relationship significant at the 1 percent level). Q,uite consistent with -this was the finding that the higher a person's estimate of the past frequency of hurricanes in the Virgin Islands, the greater the tendency to pray and go to church on Supplication Day (relationship significant at the 1. 5 percent level, Table 25). Those who go to church on Supplication Day have a greater fear of, and a much more accurate knowledge of the hurricanes that have affected and will affect the Virgin Islands. Conver sely, those who do nothing on Supplication Day are either doubtful whether the islands are troubled by hurricanes or feel that the islands are not troubled by hurricanes or underestimate the character and frequency of the major tropical cyclones. Religious behavior on Supplication Day wap not shown to be related significantly to the four stories (question 20 and Table 20) chosen by respondents. Nevertheless most of those who failed to choose the second story which presented hurricane incidence correctly as a random series were also people who did nothing on Supplication Day. Therefore, many who do nothing on Supplication Day do so because their information on hurricanes is deficient. Not surprisingly, disproportionately large numbers of the church- goers on July 25 are over 50 years of age and owners of houses (Tables 26 and 27). They have accumulated a great deal of hurricane knowledge and have much to lose. They tend to expect prospective aid to come from the government after a damaging hurricane (Table 28). Those who do nothing, or simply pray, on SUpplication Day tend to be young and middle-aged tenants with less experience of hurricanes and (presumably) less to lose in a troublesome hurriCane. These people tend to expect either no aid after hurricanes or help from the Red Cross, church, or other special groups (rather than from the government). The relationships between religious behavior and the respondent's age (question 6) and housing status (question 10) were significant at the 5 and 1 percent levels respectively, and the relationship between religious behavior and the source of prospective aid in the hurricane's aftermath was significant at the 2 percent level. -I Religious Table 25 Religious Behavior and Estimated Past Frequency of V.I. Hurricanes in Respondent's Lifetime (Percentages) No. of Hurricanes Estimated Behavior on S.D. 1 2 3 4 5 Total Cases (14) (12) (8) (7) (1) Go to Church (18) 28.5 50.0 50.0 42.8 100.0 42.8 Pray (9) 14.2 8.3 25.0 57.1 0.0 21.4 Nothing (15) 57.1 41.6 25.0 0.0 0.0 35.7 Total 42 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Table 26 Religious Behavior on supplication Day and Age (percentages) Age Group of Respondents (in years) Behavior on S.D. 10-30 30-50 >50 Total Cases (21) (40) (30) (91) Don't Know (4 ) 14.2 2.5 0.0 4.3 Go to Church (30) 23.8 29.9 43.3 32.9 Pray (21) 19.0 17.5 33.3 23.0 Nothing (36) 42.8 50.0 23.3 39.5 Total (91) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Relationship significant at the .045 level of significance :) Table 27 Religious Behavior and Housing (Percentages) Housing status Behavior on S.D. OWners Renters Total Cases (58) (32) (90) Don't Know (4 ) 1.7 9.3 4.4 Go to Church (30) 36.2 28.1 33.3 Pray (20) 31.0 6.2 22.2 130 Nothing (36) 31.0 56.2 40.0 Total (90) 100.0 100.0 100.0 Relationship significant at the .008 level of significance r::, t<, Table 28 Religious Behavior and prospective Source of Aid After Hurricane Source of Aid Behavior Don't Knbw Friend Gov't Spec. Group No One Total Cases (1) (2 ) (50) (34) (4) (91) Don't Know (4 ) 1 0 2 1 0 4 Go to Church (30) 0 0 20 9 1 30 Pray (21) 0 1 9 11 0 21 Do Nothing (36) 0 1 19 13 3 36 Relationship significant at the .017 level of significance. ( ~' - - Neither the number of hurricanes actually experienced by respondents (question 15) nor the worst damage levels experienced in the hurricanes (question 16) were related to religious behavior on Supplication Day. And it will be recalled, these variables were not related in any obvious way to the number of perceived adjustments to the hurricane hazard. Adjustment levels among the populace appear to cut across lines of literacy, income, actual hurricane experience, previous hurricane damage experience, and years of residence in the Virgin Islands. Only in the area of religious behavior are relationships strong and consistent. The absence of relationships where they might have been expected simply points up both the remarkable diversity of perceptions of the hurricane hazard held by the people of the Virgin Islands and the highly varied experiential and educational backgrounds of the peoples who have migrated to the Virgin Islands in the last 25 years. The people who are really sensitive to the hurricane danger are those from all walks of life who have sunk much of their life's capital into a home and property. Whether these people are 50-years old Virgin Islanders with experience of only one major hurric.~ne or continental retirees resident five years on St. Thomas and with no hurricane ex- perience, they fear the hurricane, make numerous adjustments when a hurricane is imminent, and pray to God in church on Supplication Day that they will be spared in the coming hurricane season. They see - 94 -- hurricanes as a random series (probability theory), are relatively pessi- mistic in reading the recor.d of past hurricane occurrences in St. Thomas, and are essentially realistic in their view of the, likelihood of a visitation of damaging hurricanes in the future. As a group they place little faith in 'natural' predictive signs of imminent hurricanes, some relying ex- clusively on U. S. Weather Bureau hurricane forecasts, and others believing that hurricanes are the will of a whimsical and arbitrary God· whose signs are not made obvious to man. As a group these persons present little problem to those concerne4 with educating Virgin Islanders to hurricane preparedness. By contrast, another group--those who 'Ido nothing" on Supplication Day, present a major problem. Many of these people, having little knowledge of the hurricane history of St. Thomas think of Supplication Day as unnecessary; others think of the observance as outdated, given modern building strengths and technology and the 'fact' that hurricane tracks have changed. Others, a sizeable number, have never heard of Supplication Day- -a situation symptomatic of a dangerous lack of awareness of the Virgin Islands hurri- cane hazard; still others have so little to lose that their only concern is personal safety. Whether or not church-going and prayers are effective on Supplica- tion Day or any other day in mitigating the hurricane hazard is immate- rial. What is important is that religious behavior, particularly on Supplication Day. is the single best indicator available for identifying those who have a limited awareness of the hurricane hazard and some- times related unpreparedness. There would be little need for a report on hurricane hazard per- ception if a severe hurricane (A -type) had struck the Virgin Islands in the last 30 years, or if a damaging hurricane (B-type) had come in the last 15 years. This is the average time-interval separating hurricanes of these types in the V. I. in the last 100 years. As it happens. however. the last A-type and B-type hurricanes 'visited upon St. Thomas 56 years and 40 years ago respectively. Thus a number of myths have grown up about the past and future hurricanes and their patterns, character and frequencies in the islands. Half-truths and distortions are commonplace. and many of them are fueled by often well-intentioned but frequently mis- guided publications available on the islands. What is surprising is that in an island with large numbers of recent immigrants, so many are aware of the hurricane hazard and of the many possible adjustments that can be made. Clearly many people make adequate adjustments when a hurri- cane is forecast. Nevertheless there are also many who do little or nothing when a I hurricane is forecast. These people make up anywhere between 8 and 20 percent of the population of St. Thomas, and perhaps as much as one- fifth. Another estimated 25 to 35 percent of the population either make _ n r: uU inadequate preparation for impending hurricanes or have imperfect information about the possible intensity, frequency, and future proba- bilities of hurricanes and of associated tidal surges and floods. Furthermore, of those who are generally prepared, there are many in coastal areas, in flood plains in steep-sided vallyes. and at the bases of recently cut-over steep hill-slopes etc. who are unavvare of. and make inadequate preparation for the unforeseen localized dangers that will some day face them. Conclusion: Increasing Preparedness The loss of life and some of the property damage that the imaginary Linda causes in the futuristic scenario that prefaces this report can be averted if the Virgin Islands adopt the "Homeport" plan. the model of how "an imaginary city gets ready for a hurricane. ,,60 The Hurricane \ Preparedness Plan devised by N.G.A.A. for the imaginary city of Homeport is much more than St. Thomas has at the moment. It demands a Hurricane Preparedness Committee with seven major responsibilities, the elaboration of special communication links, selection of shelter areas, development of evacuation plans and maps (three - for storm tides of different projected levels are prepared for Bomeport ), and, above all, 60 The Homeport Story, U. S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1971. - f! 7 - a large scale program to acquaint the public with the plans and with the . . . . . .. . . 61 committee's role in hurricane preparedness. A start in the Virgin Islands might be made by distributing The Homeport Story to prospective members of the "Preparedness Committee and their institutions and offices. A follow-up at the public level might distribute the brief N. O. A. A. circular "Hurricane Safety Rules Jl to all households on the island. Two handbooks have apparently been widely circulated on the island by the office of Civil Defense. It is significant~however ~ that in our interviews (with over 170 people) no one mentioned any of these publica- tions or brought them out to show us. There are good reasons for this. Two-thirds of the gO-page booklet entitled In Time of Emergency: A Citizen's Handbook on Nuclear Attack, Natural Disasters.c~ncerns nuclear attack. The four pages (75-78) devoted to "Floods and Hurri- canes", are hidden in the remainder of the booklet which concerns natural disasters that are potentiaily of little consequence to the Virgin Islands. 62 The 100-page Survival Handbook issued by the government of the I Virgin Islands does abstract the relevant sections concerning hurricanes 6l lbid., pp. 5 -16 62In Tiine of Eiriergericy, U. S. Department of Defense~ Office of Civil Defense~ H-14~ 1968. from In Time of Emergency but this follows 50 pages of administrative and legislative memoranda of little concern to the public and another 20 pages of minutiae. 63 The information useful in time of and before hurricanes is simply lost and the public (average citizen) cannot be bothered to find it. Some of the booklets will undoubtedly be taken off the shelf, dusted off, and studied after a disaster, but most will have been misplaced or thrown out simply because they are too big, too disparate, and irrelevant to the average citizen. The booklets (reflect- ing the interest of the issuer - the O. C. D. ) are concerned more with nuclear attack than with hurricanes, and with aftermath rather than with preparation for disaster. Shorter more precise statements are needed if people are to be better prepared: something that can be stuck on the wall in the home and business that can be found or referred to immediately or something - . - carried around by the individual. The Miami Herald's 27 instructions on "What To Do If A Hurricane Threatens" set around a map showing the tracks of the 15 major hurricanes since 1900 is good. It is backed by a useful Hurricane Tracking Map. It is large (23 x 15 inches) but it can be affixed to kitchen-cupboard- doors. The wallet-size "Tips for 63 - - - - . - - - . - - . - - .. Survival Handbook, Government of the Virgin Islands, Office of the Governor, Office of Civil Defense, n. d. ,-- Hurricane SafetyIJ cards published by N. O. A. A. 64 are more succinct and handy and could be carried in the hurricane season by practically everyone on the islands. A minimum improvement upon present pro- cedures could be effected in the Virgin Islands if these materials were mailed to each householder accompanied by suggestions as to where to post the materials mailed. If these and similar pamphlets could be delivered to each householder by hand by members of the O. C. D. com- munity-disaster teams in late June-early July this would ensure a more effective distribution and use~_ It would at the same time identify to citizens the important local- disaster workers to whom they should turn for leadership. This delivery might occur at each house once every 3 to 5 years, and an effort could be made to identify new householders, and visit each of these before the onset of the hurricane season. The , teams might well receive current N. O. A. A. publications such as Hurricane65 and The Ho~eport Story.66 If such a policy could be implemented, it might double the effective- ness of present preparations. Thus for a severe hurricane such as that described in the scenario $2-3 million of damage and inestimable lives 65Hurricane, U. S. Department of' Commerce, Environmental Science Services Administration, 1968. 66 The Homeport Story, op. cit. - 100 - might be saved with a rough outlay of $3 00. 000 over the next 30 years. 67 Distribution of generally applicable printed materials, however per- sonal. will not ensure maximum preparedness in the Virgin Islands. A re-education program at the individual level is necessary. This report is a preliminary source for such re-education at say the school and community levels. But it is not enough. Thirty years of myth-making about the weak and disappearing hurricane combined with the natural feeling that the disaster will befall others have combined to make the o. C. D. 's task difficult. To counterbalance this effectively can only in my opinion be done if teams of responsible and respected community householders approach the householders in the community and draw up a large-scale personalized "master contingency plan" for each house or group of houses, or, failing that, pinpoint the individual's house in rela- tion to the various evacuation and contingency plans drawn up. Trained physical geographers familiar with the islands' stream, drainage, soil, and coastal characteristics could work out such large scale local 'plans' intuitively. but community volunteers would have more difficulty par- ticularly in envisioning the workings of the hydrologic system at say the "basin-wide" scale (e. g. iJ? the Turpentine Run basin in a lOa-year hurricane). It would help immeasurably if physical geographers could 67 The crude estimates are extensions of estimates made by Arnold L. Sugg. "Economic Aspects of Hurricanes, " Monthly Weather Review. 95, No.3. 1967, pp. 143-146. run simulations of hurricanes of various types, Hlagnitudes. and pro- babilities of occurrence, estimate and map the areal expression of each of these at the micro-level. and ensure that this information is trans- 1ated cOIl'lprehensively to those whose task is to set up personalized "master plans" at the communi ty, street, and individual level. When all is said and done what could be saved by such a procedure (if preparedness were thus increased) is say 5 to 8 million dollars once every 33 years (15 million dollars each century). How much would the procedure cost? Is it worth the annual outlay? The simulation and explanation over 33 years would cost at most $3/4 million and the distribution of the two "publications!! would cost $1/2 million through conventional channels. Thus $4 to 7 million in property and lives of inestimable value would be saved if such procedure were instituted. (The calculation does not put any value on the time of the community volunteers, however). Clearly maximum preparedness will save many lives but will only cut down a small proportion of the costs of hurricane damage. Four fifths of all hurricane damage will be unaffected by even maximum preparedness. Research workers and planners having done all they can to ensure maxi- mum preparedness are thus faced with a secon~ problem that of foreseeing and predicting the sum total of island -wide problems at the level of micro- events that will face them in the aftermath of hurricanes of various characteristics and magnitudes. The relationship between the Red Cross, -the Office of Civil Defense, and other government agencies have been specified; enabling legislation has been enacted, and procedures for the employees of government agen- cies, etc. have been specified. 68 But as far as I have been able to determine no projections of the possible and probably spatial and environmental impact of a future hurricane have been made, at any scale. Linda, the most damaging hurricane in the island's history struck St. Thomas and apparently St. John in the early hours of yesterday morning. Chaos reigns and ••••.••.•. 68Survival Handbook, Ope cit., pp. 5-50 -i (\ f) - '~ ,j r) Appendix 1 The Hurricane Section of the Questionnaire (1969) The hurricane section of the interview was added after interviewing had been under way for almost a week. I became interested in some of the hurricane lore and decided to add a series of further questions. These questions were separate from the. interview sheets. and as the interviewers were going through the whole questionnaire from memory after a week in the field. the hurricane section was missed by a few. Consequently our sample is smaller than for other climatic data. Some- thing needs to be said about the sample. We made no attempt to get a random sample for we needed people who had lived on the islands at least 2 years for most of the questions. and in some cases answers were not processed unless the interviewee had lived 5 years or more in the islands. Appendix 2 Definitions The educated elite are defined as people with little or no political power but who are 1) in prominent positions in agencies concerned with climate and water resources, 2) in an information-providing position (to both the folk and populace. and the decision makers), and 3) who might be expected to be appraised of the basic 'scientific' knowledge of the island's physical environment. The decision-making elite are prominent people with political power in the islands. The populace were separated from the folk group by their level of education, associations, and occupations. They were presumed to have received some high school education. and to have the newspapers and radio as their main source of "scientific" information about the physical environment. The group included twelve school teachers. twelve hotel, business and store owners and managers (including two wives of business men). three real estate agents, ten bank. store. and office assistants in positions of some authority, one head librarian, two senior policemen, and the vice-president of the student body in the local high school. We eliminated four questionnaires from this group because the interviewees had been on the island less than three years. The folk group included five taxi drivers. three native sales clerks and typists, two farm workers. one construction worker and one wife of a farm worker. The people in this group had less than a high school education, and their main sources of information were presumed to be family, local groups and hearsay. Perception of the environment was presumed to have been little changed by the reading of elite (educated) sources. Three interviews from this group "lvere of necessity removed because of the summariness of the answers and the general hostility of the interviewee. We experienced a great deal of difficulty with others in this group and four questionnaires n,-ighL ,yell have been rejected because of the excessive succinctness of the answers. A separate series of questions was set up for the folk group but the simplification of the wording of the questions is obviously not eno~~gh. We found the young native island folk the most hostile, but the: British West Indians who had been in the Virgins less than 10 years Vitere also uncommunicative when approached by our group. Appendix 3 Age (Q. 6) Years lived in the V.I. (Q.2l) Expectancy to live in V. I. many more yrs. (Q. 22) Literacy (Q.S) "'Housing (Q .10) Income (Q.3S) Religion (Q.12) Sample (93) (S9) (93 ) (91) (93) (90) (90) Advantages of Living on V.I. Pros & Cons. of .V.I. (Q.13) Adviser in Community, problems (91) (93 ) i - ! Characteristics of the Sampled Population (1970) No: % No: % No: % No: % No: % No: % No: % No: , , No: % lS-30 yrs. 22 23.6 0-10 yrs. 29 32.5 Don't Know 10 10.S Low -9 9 0 S OWner 59 63.4 High 27 30.0 protestant 56 6202 Emphasis on: Advantages 50 54.9 Don't Know 1 1.1 Cases 30.1-50 yrs. 50 01+ yrs. 40 31 43.0 33.3 10.1-20.00 yrs. 20 0 1 & more 16 44 17.9 49.4 Yes No Doubtful 73 6 4 7S.5 6 0 5 4 03 Moderate High Total 29 53 91 310S 5S 02 100 00 Tenant Seasonal Total 33 1 93 35 0 5 1.1 100 0 0 Medium Low Total 43 20 90 47.S 2202 100.0 Catholic None Atheist 25 27 0S Disadvantages 7 Family 12 12 0 9 7.7 Friend 10 10.S 7 70S 1 1.1 Neither 34 3704 Special Group 19 20.4 Total - 93 100~0 Total Ei9 100.0 Total --g"3 100 0 0 Jewish 1 101 Total 91 100.0 Total 90 100.0 Gov't No-One 35 16 37 0 6 17.2 0 ::..n Tot~\l. - .. ~--.- 93 100.0 - lCHi - Appendix 4 1. G. U. Commission on Man and Envrionment Test of Hazard Group Questionnaire (1970) 1. Date 2. Country 3. Place 4. Number of interviewer 5. Number of respondent IS THE HEAD OF THE HOUSE AT HOME? 6. Age in years 7. Number. age and sex of persons in household: over 21 16 - 21 o - 15 Total 8. Literacy Age ... Male Female Cannot read Read but less than 6 years formal schooling Formal schooling of 6 years or more 9. Occupation Artisan Tradesman Laborer Government Education Manufacturer Professional Unemployed Retired Other specify 10. Housing Owner Tenant Seasonal Communal 11. Predominant language spoken in household l G I -- 12. Religion 13. What are the principal advantages and disadvantages in living in this place? a. Emphasis on: Advantages Disadvantages Neither b. List any hazards (social or natural) noted by respondent 14. Do the people of the Virgin Islands have any trouble with hurricanes? Yes Doubtful No Don't know (At this point, introduce the sentence completion test. ) 15. In the years since you were born, how many times have there been hurricanes "in the Virgin Islands? 15a. Have you experienced any yourself? If no, skip to question 19. If yes, where Yes No 16. What happens to your household if a hurricane strikes? a. List any effects volunteered by respondent b. Are the damages considered to be: Number Total (80 - 100 %) Substantial (21 - 79%) Slight (1 - 20%) Non-existent (%) c. What are the major damages? Workplace House Community People 17. When was the worst year for hurricanes? 18. When was the last year when there was trouble with hurricanes? 19. Do you think the hurricane will come again in your lifetime? Yes Don't know No If yes, soon? in a few years? in many years? can't say? 20. Here is a story on which we would like your comments. Once after a hurricane four men spoke about a hurrican,e COrning again. The first said that the hurricane would come again soon because :when hurricanes happen, more will s00l?- foll~'Y. The second thought that hurricanes would come again, but did not know when, because hurricanes can happen in any year. The third said that he kne~ ~heri the hurricanes would come, for there is a regular time, and that time must pass before it comes again. The fourth t1Dught that the hurricanes wouidnot come again. Which man had the best idea about the coming of hurricanes? - 102 - 21. How many year s have you lived in the Virgin Islands? 22. Do you think you will live in the Virgin Islands many more years? Yes Doubtful No Don't know 23. During the years you have lived here, how many years would you say have been for you? Good Regular Bad 24. When you want to talk over an important community problem to whom do you speak? Family Government Friend Special group or person No one specify 25. If you have problems after a hurricane occurs who can you go to for help in recovering from your losses? Family Friend Special group or person specify Government No one 26. How successful have such people been in helping you recover your losses? (If No in 15a: How successful do you think such people would be in helping you to recover your losses?) Completely Don't Know Somewhat successful Somewhat unsuccessful 27. Do you know anyone who has been helped by the government because of a hurricane? a. Yes No b. If Yes, explain 28. Are there any signs or ways of knowing when a hurricane will come again? a. Yes No Don't know b. If yes, explain 29. When a hurricane comes, what do other people do? when asked Adjustments Mentioned by respondent yes no good bad why Nothing Pray Bar House Leave the V. 1. Go to Fort Church Cut Trees 3 O. Do you do any of these things? Why? 31. What did you do when the Weather Bureau last forecast a hurricane warning? 32. Will you do anything different next time? Yes No If yes, what? 33. What do you do on Supplication Day? July 25 If answer to 15a was No, skip to question 36. 34. Next time there is a hurricane, would you do anything any different than you did last time? Yes No If Yes, what? 35. If a warning were to be given that a hurricane is coming this year, would you do anything different? Yes No If yes, what? 36. Do you try to carry any money over from one year to the next year? Yes No Don't know a. If yes, year? b. If yes, c. If yes, about what proportion do you carryover from year to but respondent cannot say but respondent would not say 37. Is there anything that.the. people, 'your'frierids and neighbors, can do to prevent damage from a hurricane? Yes Don't know No, If yes, specify - 110 - Interviewer's comments: 38. Estimated income in relation to mean for group Interview situation: Respondent's attitude: Alone Hostile Reliable Group Neutral Unreliable High Medium Low Helpful Bibliography " . . . . '.. Baumann, D. D. and Sims,J. H., Analysis of the Tornado Hazard Data, Mimeographed Report, 1970. Recently published as "The Tornado Threat: Copjng Styles of the North and South, 11 Science, 176, 1972, pp. 1386-1392. Beard, J.S., The Natural Vegetation of the Windward and Leeward Islands, Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1949. Bowden, M. J., et al., Climate, Water Balance and Climate Change in the Northwest Virgin Islands, St. Thomas: Caribbean Research Institute, 1970. Bowden, M. J. et al., Water Ba lance of A Dry Island: The Hydro- climatology of St. Croix Virgin Islands and Potential for Agriculture and Urban Growth, Hanover, New Hampshire: Dartmouth College Publications in Geography, No.6, 1968. Burton, 1., Kates, R. W., and Snead, R .• The Human Ecology of Coastal Flood Hazard in Megalopolis, University of Chicago. Dept. of Geography Research Paper No. 115, 1969. Conner. W. C., Kraft. R. H .• and Harris. D. L •• "Empirical Methods for Forecasting the Maximum Storm Tide due to Hurricanes and Other Tropical Storms". Monthly Weather Review. 85, 1957, pp. 113-116. Cry. George W., llTropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic, Tracks and Frequencies of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms. 1871-1963," U. S. Weather Bureau. Technical Paper No. 55, Washington, D. C., 1965. Dunn, Gordon E., and Miller, Banner I., Atlantic Hurricanes, Baton Rouge: Louisiana State University Press, 1960. Final Report of the Caribbean Hurricane Seminar, Government of the Dominican Republic, Ciudad Trujillo, D. N., 1956. Fletcher, Robert D., "Computation of Maximum Surface Winds in Hurri- canes lJ , Bulletin of the American Meterorological Society, 36, June 1955, pp. 247-250. Friedman, D. G., and Light, G., lIHurricanes and Their Loss Potentiaill , National Underwriter, International Insurance-Reinsurance Review, The National Underwriter, Vol. 70, No. 49, Dec. 9, 1966, pp. 40-42. - 116 - Friedman, D. G., Frequency of Hurricane Winds in Various Sections of the Gulf States Compared with Frequencies in the South Atlantic States, Hartford: Travelers Insurance Unpublished Report 1964, Friedman, D. G., The Use of Climatological Probabilities as an Aid in Making Extended Coverage Rate Level Adjustments, Hartford: Travelers Insurance Unpublished Report 1961. Friedman, D. G., "The Hurricane Hazard in Louisiana, I' Unpublished Report, Research Department, Travelers Insurance Companies, May 20, 1966. Garriott, E. B., West Indian Hurricanes, U. S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D. C., 1900. Garrison, Louis E., Holmes, Charles W., Trumbull, James V. A., Geology of the Insular Shelf South of St. Thomas & St. John, U. S. Virgin Islands, Open File Report, Caribbean Research Institute, 1971. Gentry, R. C •• "Wind Velocities During Hurricanes'" Trans. Amer. Soc. of Civil Engineers, Paper No. 2731, 120, 1955. Graham, Howard E., and Hudson, Georgina N., Surface Winds Near the Center of Hurricanes (And Other Cyclones), U. S. We·ather Bureau, National Hurricane Research Project, Report No. 39, Washington, D.C., September, 1960. Graham, Howard E., and Nunn, Dwight E., Meterorological Considera- tions Pe'rtinEmt to Standard Project Hurricane, Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States, U. S. Weather Bureau, National Hurricane Research Project Report No. 33, Washington, D. C. 1959. Haddock, Gerald H., "Hurricane Load Criteria", Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority, Electrical Planning and Research Division, EPR2 - 072, San Juan, Puerto Rico • . , . , Holliday, Charles, On the Maximum Sustained Winds Occurring in Atlan- tic Hurrfcanes, E. S. S. A. Technical Memorandum WBTM-SR-45, Weather Bureau, Southern Region, Fort Worth, Texas, May 1969. TheHo~eport' Story, U. S. Department of Commerce, N. O. A. A., 1971. Hoover, R. A., "Empirical Relationships of the Central Pressures in Hurricanes to the Maximum Surge and Storm Tide, J~ Monthly weather'Rev-iew, 85, 1957, pp. 167-174 - 113 - Hope. John R. ,Neumann, Charles J .• Climatology of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones by Two and One-Half Degree Latitude-Longitude Boxes, E.S. S. A. Technical Memorandum WBTM-SR-44, Weather Bureau Southern Region. Fort Worth. Texas, February. 1969. Hurricane, U. S. Department of Commerce. E. S. S. A., 1968. Hurricanes and Holidays--Supplication Day (July 25) Local Thanksgiving Day (Oct. 25). Mimeographed Pamphlet, E. S. E. A. Title III Staff. n. d. (St. Thomas?). 26 pp. In Time of Emergency. U. S. Department of Defense. Office of Civil Defense H-14. 1968. . , . . , . , Islam. M. Aminul, Human Adjustment of Cyclone Hazards: A Case Study of Char Jabbar, Natural Hazard Research, Working Paper, No. 18. 1971. Knox, John P., Historical Account of St. Thomas. West Indies, New Charles Scribner, 1852. Ludlum, David M .• Early American Hurricanes 1492-1870, Boston: American Meteorological Society, 1963. .. . . . . . . . Maxwell, A. E., Basic Statistics in Behavioural Research, Penguin Books, Inc., Baltimore, MD. 1970. Millas, Jose Carlos, Hurric~nes of the Caribbean and Adjacent. Regions 1492-1800, Academy of The Arts and Sciences of the Americas, Miami, Florida, 1968. Mitchell, Charles, "West Indian Hurricanes and Other Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean," Monthly Weather Review, Supplement No. 24, Weather Bureau Publication No. 840, pp. 3 -47. North, D. Warner, et a1., Decision Analysis of Hurricane Modification, SRI Project 8~03, Stanford Research Institute, California, June, 1971. Power. James, "BufldingConstruction"and Precautionary Maintenance in· Hurricane Areas, " in Final Report of the Caribbean HurriCane seminar, Ciudad Trujillo, D. N. Dominican Republic, 1956. Saarinen, T. F., Perception of the Drought Hazard of the Great Plains, University of Chicago, Dept. of Geography Research Paper No. 106, 1966. Shaw, Earl B., Geographic Studies on the Virgin Islands of the United States, Unpublished Ph. D. dissertation in Geography, Clark Uni- versity, 1932, pp. 36-58. Simpson, R.H., The Decision Process in Hurricane Forecasting: N.O.A.A. Technical Memorandum NWSSR-53, U.S. Department of Commerce, Southern Region, Fort Worth, Texas, January, 1971. Stone, Robert G., "Meteorology of the VirginIslands ll , Scientific Survey of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, New York Academy of Sciences, 19, Part I, 1942, pp. 1-138. Sugg, Arnold L., "Economic Aspects of Hurricanes", Monthly Weather Review, 95, No.3, 1967, pp. 143-146. . . . . . . Sugg, Arnold L., A Mean Storm Surge Profile, E. S. S. A. Technical Memorandum WBTM-SR-49, Weather Bureau, Souther Region, Fort Worth, Texas, December, 1969. Survival Handbook, Government of V. I., Office of the Governor, Office of Civil Defense, n. d. Tannehill, 1. R., "Sea Swells in Relation to Movement and Intensity of Tropical Storms," Monthly Weather Review, 64, July 1936, pp. 231-238. Tannehill, Ivan Ray, Hurricanes, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1950. Thorntliwaite, C. W., and lV[ather, J. R., Instructions and Tables or Com- puting Potential Evapotransporation and the Water Balance, Drexel Institute of Technology, Laboratory of Climatology, Publications in Climatology, Vol. 10, No. 3, Center~l CA TF En! CA TF EFl-: 0.60 0.20 80 (28) 48805 3830 4.39 5.56 0.501.06 4 (9) 266 .75 3.15 1.71 1. 83 1. 65 .83 1.91 2.40 1. 34 1.61 1. 34 1.52 6.30 .13 4.15 5.76 3.92 5.70 .73 .55 .99 3.43 1. 59 3.95 4.20 3.22 1. 98 6.70 3.67 4.75 .91 2.03 3.75 2.40 3.19 1.51 MISSING 1.68 5.99 4.79 5.97 1.06 .97 1. 52 4.78 2.18 5.00 4.90 5.18 3.61 7.54 4.61 6.98 CA = Charlotte &~alie TF = Truman Field EFM = Estate Fort ;·;ylner 2.18 5.09 2.75 4.83 7.93 6.67 9.36 6.20 6.14 4.87 10.53 6.12 10.82 3.10 11.00 8.59 10.88 6.65 6.52 6.48 14.05 8.25 14.74 --: -~-~----- 4.80 4.40 3.80 0.40 0.40 0.80 0.90 0.90 1.10 1 SHS (Col. 7) = Soil !-loisture Storage CA. (in inches) 2 R-O (Col. 8) = Run-off at CA. (in inches) 1.60 4.50 .31 1.7+ 30 \---=?7--~-:J !343 10 (26) 902 '301 (11) 8303 5071 3461 (14) 1102 413 105 538 (1) 11,691 ~ 6.40 1,581 (23) 108,467 8,836 149 (18) 850 423 0.68 241 (22) 41,807 3,900 2.55 10.15 3 The three highest-day levels of discharge in the storm at Turpentine Run (in 1,000 gallons per day). 4 For definition of damage levels see Table 12. 5 Figure underlined (Col. 9) is highest-day level. Dis- ~ Charge! ; Mod. ~,,,,, I ,I,," j~:" t j ~>\;C·. j,j·,)C: • Minor !'-'Iod. !-linor !-lin. (blackout Heavy Min.-Mod. Mod. Minor !-lod. Minor Termed beneficial ,by breaking long :drought "~'(;"""v':r'::r='-" ~- -- •• - 'CA hit hard Min.-Mod. Minor; Frenchtown flooded brief but heavy rain Brief, but heavy rain caused moderat, heavy damage Mod.-Heavy Minor ~utu, Fort Mylner Min.-Mod. Heavy CA mainly $6,220,000 V. Heavy I I! II